Heart of Dallas
Bowl Pick
Illinois
vs.
Louisiana Tech
12/26/14
The Heart of Dallas Bowl has gone through a number of name changes throughout the years and is now sponsored by Zaxby’s. It features a Big Ten team that is a 6-point underdog to a C-USA team, something you don’t see every day. High-scoring Louisiana Tech faces the somewhat lucky Illinois, who won their final two Games of the season to reach six wins.
The Fighting Illini’s final three wins of the season all came as an underdog. They improbably took out Minnesota 28-24, beat Penn State 16-14 with a last-second field goal, and then travelled to Northwestern and won 47-33 in a Game that pitted two five-win teams against each other in the final Game of the season. Head coach Tim Beckman was on the hot seat all season long and these wins have quieted the rumors.
Louisiana Tech had a better route to a bowl Game at 8-5, although that comes with playing in an easier conference. They did lose to Northwestern State in non-Conference play which was a bit surprising as they lost a 10-point Fourth quarter lead in the process. The Bulldogs crushed Rice 76-31 to close the regular season and had Marshall on the ropes in the C-USA title Game, but ended up losing 26-23.
In similar opponents, Illinois beat Western Kentucky 42-34 in September, while LA. Tech beat them 59-10, in probably the Hilltoppers’ worst Game of the season.
If there’s one area Illinois struggles in, it’s on the defensive side and that will be a problem against an offense that scores 37 points per Game. But even with numbers like that, LA. Tech has been off-and-on. They put 59 points on WKU, then only 27 on Old Dominion, then scored 55 on UTEP and only 27 against Northwestern State.
Stopping the Bulldogs on offense starts with running back Kenneth Dixon (1,236 yards, 21 TDs), who is on a complete tear, with 399 yards and seven TDs in the last three Games. He also recorded a 99-yard TD run against LA-LAfayette earlier in the year. In the passing Game, senior Cody Sokol has been respectable in his first season as the starter, although a 7-for-20 day against Marshall wasn’t what he was hoping for. He had 29 TDs and 13 INTs for the year, and Illinois can be beat through the air. His favorite target is the shifty Trent Taylor (814 yards, 9 TDs).
LA. Tech’s defense has had their sparks as well, as holding a team like Western Kentucky to 10 points isn’t easy. Even stopping Marshall to 26 is something not many teams have done this year.
The Illini have battled QB injuries throughout the year and it looks like Reilly O’Toole will be the starter for this one. He actually played against LA. Tech in 2012 when these teams met in the regular season, a 52-24 win for the Bulldogs. O’Toole has been competent at times, but his 17 TDs and 16 INTs for his career don’t win many Games.
To win this Game, the Illini will need to get their run Game going, which is something they’ve had problems with. In the final Northwestern win, O’Toole rushed for 147 yards, Josh Ferguson for 95 and Donovonn Young for 51 yards. It was by far their best rushing day of the season. A repeat performance would give Illinois the edge. In the passing Game freshman Mike Dudek (965 yards, 6 TDs) has been a complete stud in a mediocre passing offense. He has 18 catches for 178 yards in the last two Games. LA. Tech must stop Dudek from beating them.
The Fighting Illini have covered in five straight neutral site Games and Four straight against the C-USA. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six Games overall, but only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-Conference Games.
In Games where we are playing the side as a Key Release, we won’t offer an opinion here. However, in this spot, we’ll offer an opinion on the TOTAL.
Despite over 60% of the action on the total in this one being on the OVER, the line has moved significantly the other way. Generally a good indication that the sharp money is on the other side, in this case, the UNDER.
The problem with this strategy in this case though, is that the line on the total has moved 5 points, from 62 to 57. Can’t advise playing the under in any serious way here after losing 5 points of value, but we’ll call it a slight lean towards UNDER 57.