Holiday Bowl Pick
Nebraska
vs.
USC
12/27/14
This is the Holiday Bowl, but neither one of these teams will feel like they’re on holiday after faltering in their biggest Games of the year. Being played in San Diego, this Game is only a couple hOurs from USC campus, while Nebraska will be led by an interim coach, Barney Cotton, who has been with the team for eight years. The Trojans have gotten a lot of the early money and are up to -6.5 point favorites.
Nebraska started the season 5-0 and ranked inside the Top 20, until their Schedule picked up. They were outmatched against Michigan State and Wisconsin and lost at home to Minnesota. The Cornhuskers’ best wins were against Miami (FL) (41-31) and Iowa (37-34 OT), which doesn’t say a whole lot. Their offense could keep them in Games, but the defense struggled against decent offenses.
USC’s season went a bit differently. They had the ability to beat everyone on their Schedule, but it just didn’t happen en route to an 8-4 record, one less win than the Huskers. The Trojans followed up an early road win at Stanford by losing to Boston College. They lost on a Hail Mary to Arizona State and late at Utah. UCLA was a legitimate loss as the defense couldn’t keep up with Brett Hundley. This is still a group that has road wins over Stanford and Arizona, and a huge 49-14 beat down against Notre Dame in the season finale.
In similar opponents, USC beat Fresno State 52-13 on opening weekend, and Nebraska beat them a couple weeks later on the road 55-19.
The motivation level for these teams should be fine, as a lot of Nebraska players have to look good as new coach Mike Riley looks on, while Steve Sarkisian should have his team pumped so he doesn’t finish with five losses.
Nebraska is led by their offense and a dominant running Game. It’s unlikely USC will be able to stop the combo of RB Ameer Abdullah (1,523 yards, 18 TDs) and QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. (664 yards, 5 TDs). The only time the Huskers have been stopped offensively was against the best defenses they faced (MSU, Wisconsin). USC is kind of hit-or-miss on the defensive end, so Nebraska has the advantage.
Armstrong also can’t be forgotten in the passing Game. While he’s only completing 51.7% of his passes, he can make plays to guys like Kenny Bell and Jordan Westerkamp. One thing Armstrong can’t do in this Game is turn the ball over as he has 11 INTs on the year.
USC’s offense is a bit more balanced and that will give Nebraska immediate problems. The Huskers don’t have a bad defense, but the only teams they’ve really stopped this year have been ones with losing records.
Quarterback Cody Kessler has made a huge improvement in his second season as the starter, completing 70.7% of his passes for a ridiculous 36 TDs and only Four INTs. Those are incredible numbers, but it should be noted he only had three TD passes in USC’s three Pac-12 losses. The running Game is just as potent behind Javorius Allen (1,337 yards, 9 TDs) and Justin Davis (550 yards, 4 TDs), who has been getting more touches lately.
In the receiving Game Nelson Agholor (1,223 yards, 11 TDs) has turned it up a notch to close the season, surpassing 110 yards in five of the last six. The only real time Nebraska faced an elite QB-WR combo this season was when MSU’s Tony Lippett went for 103 yards and a touchdown against them.
USC can Scoreon pretty much anyone with their offense so it’s going to fall on Nebraska’s offense to win this Game. If Tommy Armstrong can make some plays with his arm, this will be a close Game, but if he can’t, it could easily get away from Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers have not covered in Four straight Games vs. the Pac-12, are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site Games and 5-1 ATS in their last six non-Conference Games. USC is 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl Games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Big Ten.
With Nebraska coach Bo Pelinni gone and Mike Riley waiting in the wings to take over, we favor USC here as the more stable program. At -7 or better, we’ll take the Trojans as the feeling here is that they are the better football team. We had this Game right arond the current line and if things were different emotionally, we could make a case for Nebraska, USC -7 or better