Illinois Ohio State Football Pick

164
$60 in actual member picks FREE from Docs Sports! - Complete with a PROFIT GUARANTEE! Click Here

Illinois

vs.

Ohio State

Big 10

College Football

Pick with Analysis

11/1/14

Ohio State may not be as good as everyone thought they were. They got a scare last week at Penn State when the offense couldn’t move the ball in the second half. This one will be a little easier with the Buckeyes being -28.5 point home favorites against Illinois at home.

The reason for the high spread is that bettors are assuming the Bucks will put up 50 points again like old times. Prior to the PSU Game, they scored 50-plus in Four straight Games against mediocre competition. Illinois is mediocre competition. This defense can be beat though, which is a cause for concern with a line like this.

Sure, Illinois is bad and hasn’t done much in the Big Ten lately, but they are coming off a win against a feisty Minnesota team, so we know the Illini won’t lay down in this one. They also travelled to Wisconsin before that and only lost by 10 points, scoring 28 in the process. A 45-14 loss to Nebraska is a similar result that OSU backers will be hoping for in this one.

Illinois gave a bit of a fight in this Game last year, but Ohio State was too much winning 60-35. That was a better offense for the Buckeyes, though. In this matchup, Ohio State has won six straight times and covered in three of their last Four home Games.

The Illini starting quarterback, Wes LUnt, is still hurt and won’t play, making Reilly O’Toole the starter. LUnt is the better QB, but O’Toole hasn’t been completely terrible in replacement. After getting harassed in the Nebraska Game, O’Toole has looked competent for the most part completing at least 63% of his passes in the last three Games. Illinois has some pieces as well that will cause OSU trouble, like Josh Ferguson and Donovonn Young in the backfield and Mike Dudek and Geronimo Allison out wide.

The question comes on the other end. How many points will Ohio State score? The Illini haven’t allowed more than 45 points all year. After last week’s Game, it was made evident that this is still not the same Buckeyes offense from a year ago.

J.T. Barrett is having a great season considering the circumstances, but his faults were exploited last week as he only passed for 74 yards in a double overtime Game. Of course, Illinois doesn’t have the same type of defense as Penn State, so stopping Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott is not going to be easy. However, if they can get to him at all, Barrett can be rattled. That may be a little too difficult for the Illinois defense though.

O’Toole’s main goal for Illinois will be to not turn the ball over, which he hasn’t done in the last couple Games. Ohio State loves capitalizing on turnovers and that could decide who covers here.

This is the biggest spread of the year for both teams and another factor to look at is Ohio State’s Schedule. Their most important Game of the season is next week at Michigan State. Will they be caught looking ahead at all?

The Fighting Illini are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road Games and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Conference Games. The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, but 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools.

Not much interest in this one for us, however, we’ll offer a couple of opinions based on Our model. Our model predicts scores of 53-20 using full season data and 58-22 using only the last 4 Games. So, pretty consistent predictions using different time frames both of which point towards Ohio State and the OVER. Ohio State -28.5 and OVER 65. The OVER would look to be the stronger of the two.

Betonline Sportsbook - Fastest Payouts! #1 Rated Must Have Sportsbook! Click Here