Independence Bowl Pick
Miami
vs.
South Carolina
12/27/14
The Independence Bowl can also be considered the Disappointment Bowl due to the nature of these two storied teams. Opening as a near pick ’em in most places, Miami (FL) has settled as a -3 point favorite over South Carolina for the Game in Shreveport, Louisiana.
Both of these teams had high hopes entering the season, but more so South Carolina after being ranked as the No. 9 team in the nation. Both of them finished poorly with 6-6 records.
The Gamecocks haven’t won a Game in regulation since Sept. 20 and closed the season 1-5, not including the freebie wins against Furman and South Alabama. They beat Georgia early in the year and things looked great, but that soon turned south after they let a 13-point lead against Missouri slip away. Other losses include Games to Kentucky and Tennessee.
Miami (FL) was looking a little better in the middle of the season and then they faced Florida State. The Hurricanes had their chances, but lost 30-26 and that was the start of a bad three-Game losing streak to end the season. At one point they beat Cincy, Va. Tech and UNC in three straight Games, but their confidence was shot after the FSU loss.
The one thing that stands out in this Game is how poor the South Carolina defense is. Once one of the better units in the SEC, the Gamecocks have allowed 31.2 points on the year, but that number rises to almost 37 points in Conference Games.
Miami has the type of offense that can beat up on this defense. While they slipped up at the end of the year, this is still a balanced group that can Scoreas seen in 55- and 47-point showings against Cincy and UNC, respectively. The ‘Canes should find plenty of room for NFL talent Duke Johnson to work with. He’s averaging 7.0 yards per carry and has 1,520 yards and 10 TDs for the season. Quarterback Brad Kaaya (25 TDs, 11 INTs) has had a respectable freshman season and has found Phillip Dorsett (26.6 yards per catch, 9 TDs) on deep balls a number of times.
The Gamecocks defense is one of the main reasons bettors have been on Miami early.
On the offensive end, South Carolina actually scores more per Game, but not many would consider their offense to be better than Miami’s.
USC has a weaker run Game and probably haven’t run it as much as they’d like this year due to their porous defense. Mike Davis (927 yards, 9 TDs) is a solid running back and he’ll need to find holes early to keep the defense off the field. Dylan Thompson (24 TDs, 11 INTs) has been somewhat disappointing at QB and only has two TDs in the last three Games. His main job will be to not turn it over and give it to playmaker Pharo Cooper (966 yards, 8 TDs) as much as possible. This offense usually does well when Cooper gets his touches.
Which team does this Game have more meaning for? That may be what it comes down to. Miami hasn’t won a bowl Game since 2006, losing Four straight, while South Carolina has won three straight (all against the Big Ten).
The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl Games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 overall. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. the ACC, but 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral-site Games.
We’re using the side as a key release, so we’ll offer an opinion on the totla here. Not much wiggle room with this number however neither team has much of a defense. All indications are that there will be some fireworks in this one so we’ll offer a small opinion on OVER 61.