LSU
vs.
Wisconsin
Week 1
College Football Pick
The nightcap for the first college football Saturday of the 2014 season features two marquee college football programs. It will be the Big 10 vs. the SEC as Wisconsin and LSU do battle at a neutral site, Reliant Stadium in Houston. The Game can be seen on ESPN at 9PM est. LSU is favored by 4 with a total of 50 at 5 dimes sportsbook.
You can’t ignore the dominance of the SEC vs. every other Conference when handicapping a Game like this. It’ drives fans of other conferences nuts, but it’s a fact of life in college football. The SEC is better. The numbers don’t lie. Going back to the 80’s the SEC is 64-37 against the Big 10. They simply recruit the better talent. When the SEC plays the Big 10, the speed difference becomes apparent immediately.
Wisconsin is 2-7 against the SEC in that time span while LSU is 4-3-1 against the Big 10. You only need to go back to last Bowl season to see these two teams at work against the other conference. LSU took down Iowa in the OUtback Bowl while Wisconsin lost to South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl. Does this mean the Badgers have no shot here? No, it doesn’t. But you have to take these facts into account.
If this Game were to have taken place last January with the current line, we’d be on Wisconsin here. In fact, Our Score Prediction Model is at it’s best when predicting an underdog to win straight up. That’s exactly what thee model predicts here, with Wisky on top 24-23.
But that’s using last years stats. BOTH of these squads have lost key starters on both sides of the ball. Wisconsin’s defense from a year ago returns just 3 and their entire defensive front 7 is new, while LSU loses QB Zach Mettenberger, leading rusher Jeremy Hill and 3 leading receivers.
That means anyone handicapping this Game is going to be doing plenty of guesswork. As a result, we have to rely on historical results until proven otherwise. History tells us that LSU is more likely to fill their vacant spots with better talent. We’re likely to see both teams try to pound the ball and that’s a battle LSU will likely win against that rookie front 7.
History repeats – LSU -4