Miami
vs.
Louisville
College Football
Week 1 Pick
9/1/14
Louisville hosts Miami Fla. Monday Night to close out the first week of college football in a rematch of last years Russell Athletic Bowl. Louisville opened -2.5 at betonline and went as high as -4 at 5 dimes sportsbook. A few days before the Game, the line has settled in at Louisville -3.5 with a total of 53.5. That -3.5 was also the line in last years Bowl Game.
When we last left these two, Louisville, with Teddy Bridgewater behind center, was slicing and dicing the Miami defense and stifling their offense. Louisville outgained Miami 554 to 174 and held the Canes to just 14 rushing yards in a Game that was 36-2 in the 4th quarter and a 36-9 final.
Looking back at my work on last years bowls, I admit I didn’t see that blow out coming. I felt Louisville might even be disinterested in the Game. Come bowl time, we run the Score Prediction model with 3 different sets of data. Full season, last 7 Games and last 4 Games. All three had Louisville on top but it was prediction using only the last 4 Games that had Louisville not only winning but covering comfortably as well.
Louisville was the better team and Teddy Bridgewater certainly helped. But now Bridgewater will be playing on Sundays and the Cards also lost most of that fantastic defense from a year ago. No question the Cards will be down a notch. Meanwhile, Mimi loses their QB as well but they retain a healthy 7 starters on each side of the ball.
Both of these coaches have done a fine job since taking over these teams, fielding a better team each year. But Miami should still be on the rise while Louisville, well, you just can’t top a 12-1 season. We liked Miami a tad back in January so we kind of have to like them a tad here considering the players that have been lost by the Cards. The Hurricanes will have to get it done on the road which is never easy, but revenge is a big motivator especially with such a short turn around time. Just an opinion, but we’ll take Miami +3.5