Miami
vs.
Nebraska
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/20/14
The last time these teams played was in the 2002 Rose Bowl, which was the BCS National Championship Game. Miami (FL) dominated in a 37-14 win and Nebraska has not forgotten about the loss. The average ticket price for this Game is 70% higher than the season average for Huskers home Games. That says something. The Cornhuskers are -7 -115 point home favorites at sportsbook.ag
Both of these teams have been hit-and-miss to start the season, although Nebraska has grabbed the No. 24 ranking in the polls. A week after barely beating lowly McNeese State, the Cornhuskers got it together and dominated Fresno State, albeit another weak team.
Miami opened their season with a bad ACC opening loss at Louisville, but have somewhat come around in their last two, also against weaker teams.
Nebraska has the better team, or at least they do on paper and you can’t say that in many Big Ten matchups these days. Tommy Armstrong Jr. is coming into his own at quarterback, although his 53.1 completion percentage needs to improve if they want to compete with Wisconsin in the conference. Armstrong can still make plays on his feet, but it’s running back Ameer Abdullah, one of the best RBs in the nation, that leads the team. He’s averaging nearly seven yards per carry with already 396 yards on the year.
The Hurricanes couldn’t stop Louisville on the ground, and that Game ended in a bad loss. Stopping this Nebraska offense could prove to be more difficult than Louisville’s. They spread things out and Abullah is a pure playmaker for this group, also with a Game-winning 58-yard TD reception to his name.
Miami’s problem comes at quarterback where they are breaking in freshman Brad Kaaya. Kaaya actually threw for a freshman record 342 yards last Saturday, but that was against Arkansas State. Now, he has to travel to Nebraska, which is not an easy place to play. Sure, Kaaya has potential, but until he shows quality against bigger and better teams, especially on the road, it’s hard to trust this group.
The ‘Canes best chance will be to get Duke Johnson going on the ground. If he can reach 100 yards, that will lead to better opportunities for Kaaya. However, the Huskers have a solid run defense so a solid Game from Johnson shouldn’t be relied on.
Nebraska is an inconsistent team and it’s always hard to back them, especially in a non-Conference Game. The Huskers know they have a solid shot in the Big Ten’s West division and they are probably aiming at an undefeated 5-0 record by the time they face Michigan State in October.
While the Coastal division is up for grabs in the ACC, it’s going to be difficult for the ‘Canes to come out on top. They’ll only go as far as their freshman quarterback, and right now that’ll probably be a 6- or 7-win season.
The home fans will be pumped, but will a revenge factor be here at all, considering that title Game was 13 years ago?
The Hurricanes are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 overall, but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Games following an ATS win. However, most of those wins came a couple years ago, considering their poor recent ATS record. The Cornhuskers are surprisingly only 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games, but 4-1 ATS in their last five non-Conference ones.
Two similar teams here as of late. Both were 9-4 a year ago yet both were hammered by the best teams they faced. They both attained those wins against mediocre Conference competition and early season cupcakes. The Hurricanes are in a little bit better shape in terms of returning seniors and starters but that shouldn’t make a difference here.
We certainly can’t handicap this one based on any results thus far this year. The feeling here is that this Game has the potential to be a good one and could very well be up for grabs. So, we’ll grab the TD here with the Hurricanes. Miami +7