Michigan State
vs.
Oregon
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/6/14
Games between ranked teams are few and far between in the early season. That’s why the top-10 showdown between defensive power Michigan State and offensive masters Oregon is the biggest Game of the week. A win for MSU would definitely put them in playoff discussions and a win for Oregon could go a long way, especially if the Spartans win the Big Ten.
In the opening Games for both teams, there weren’t a whole lot of surprises. Michigan State covered (-34) and won 45-7 against Jacksonville State, while Oregon didn’t cover (-52) in a 62-13 over South Dakota. Neither team had to play their starters all Game, but starting MSU running back Jeremy LAngford did exit with a leg injury.
Obviously, this will be a much different test for both teams. The Ducks are the heavy favorites early in the week sitting as 13.5 point favorites playing at home. Those odds are available at 5 dimes sportsbook as well as most other top offshore books.
The main battle of course is Oregon’s offense against Michigan State’s defense. QB Marcus Mariota has Heisman hopes early in the year and he started off with a Four-TD effort last Saturday. Much like his team last season, Mariota wasn’t flawless, and has had trouble against the stout defense of Stanford over the years.
Oregon’s run Game is what makes them work as seen in their 293 yards and 7.7 yards per carry last week. As for Michigan State, that’s how they stop teams. JSU finished with 22 yards on 25 carries (sacks included) against the Spartans.
We have to figure that Oregon will get theirs, but the other side of the line may decide the Game. Connor Cook is coming off a 12-for-13, 285-yard, three-TD performance. And while it was against a weak team, that was a lot better than any showing for an MSU QB last season.
Michigan State’s main focus, however, will be in the ground Game. They’ll want to run as much as possible to keep the Mariota and company off the field, which is what Stanford has done to them. The health of LAngford will be important, as he was their best offensive player in 2013.
The Ducks gave up 172 yards on the ground against South Dakota and will need a better effort this Saturday, especially if they’re going to cover the spread.
The Spartans have had trouble with spread-it-out, heavy-rushing teams in the past, but they bucked that trend by beating Ohio State in last year’s Big Ten title Game.
Had this Game been played a year ago, Oregon would likely have been favored by 7 to 10 points. It opened at -11 at betonline before moving to where it sits now at -13.5. That move is likely due to Oregon retaining 8 starters to their offense, the strength of their team and Michigan State returning just 5 to their offense, the strength of their team.
If Oregon gets off to the races early, as they have done over and over again over the years, I’d be very concerned with Michigan States ability to come back. They’re simply not built for that type of Game.
Our models predictions using LAST YEARS stats – Oregon 25 Michigan State 18