North Carolina
vs.
East Carolina
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/20/14
East Carolina hosts North Carolina on Saturday afternoon in a Game that can be seen on ESPN at 3:30pm est. Betonline actually opened this Game North Carolina -2 but early action moved this number considerably, making East Carolina the Favorite. Currently top rated sportsbooks like 5 dimes and sportsbook.ag have the Pirates at -2.
The Tar Heels have been mostly unimpressive thus far, giving up an average of 28 points in their first two Games against weaker competition. They needed a Fourth-quarter comeback to top San Diego State two weeks ago even while intercepting the SDSU QB three times. Allowing 29 points to Liberty in their first Game wasn’t good either.
With those iffy wins, UNC has fallen out of the AP Top 25. With three of their next Four Games coming on the road against tough competition, it’ll probably be a while before they can climb back in, unless they win this one big.
East Carolina is another story, coming off a big road win at Virginia Tech last week as sizable underdogs. They fought with South Carolina the previous week and only lost by 10 points. The Pirates always have a great offense, but this year it looks like their defense has improved.
In the matchup between these schools last season, ECU racked up 55 points with 603 total yards. UNC threw for 398 yards, but could only put 31 points on the board as the running Game struggled.
The worry for bettors is that the Pirates are coming off a big road upset and now return home as favorites. North Carolina will have two weeks to prepare for this Game, as well. Then again, for a team like East Carolina, they don’t take Games against these bigger schools lightly, no matter the situation.
ECU quarterback Shane Carden is in his senior year and looking as good as ever with 1,031 passing yards and seven TDs already. He exploited the stout VT defense for a ridiculous 427 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. Cam Worthy was great in the receiving Game (224 yards) and Carden still has Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones to work with. Their running Game is solid, but if Carden can sling it like he has been, there’s no reason they’ll lean on that in this Game.
Considering the struggles for UNC’s defense so far, this could be another loss. They’ll count on quarterback Marquise Williams to keep pace on the scoreboard. In his first season as the full-time starter, Williams hasn’t been bad completing 67 percent of his passes, but his 4 TD and 2 INTs could be better. It also doesn’t help that UNC doesn’t have a 100-yard rusher right now outside of Williams. Ryan Switzer and Quinshad Davis need to step up in the passing Game.
The Tar Heels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road Games, but 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall. The Pirates have covered in five straight home Games, nine straight Games on grass, Four straight vs. the ACC, but are only 3-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. In this meeting, the Tar Heels have covered in six of the last seven, with the loss being last season.
We need to tread lightly here. We really don’t know what the Tarheels are made of, based on their first two Games. We also need to be careful not to get too worked up over the EC upset of Virginia Tech. In other words, as handicappers, we can’t overreact to any teams LAST Game.
That being said, if you look at this years results as a whole, and then look at this Game between these two a year ago, it certainly looks as though the Pirates are the better team. Now, they’ve never beaten the Tarheels in back to back Games and historircally, NC has owned this series. But there’s a first time for everything. East Carolina -2