Oklahoma State
vs.
Kansas State
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/1/14
As Kansas State continues its onslaught on the Big 12, Oklahoma State falls further into oblivion. After a less than great start to the season, the Cowboys are coming off two huge defeats in non-covering efforts. The Wildcats opened as -13 point favorites, but that has moved up to -14.5 at 5 Dimes sportsbook.
Things don’t get easier for the Cowboys as they still have to travel to Baylor and Oklahoma to close out the season. Their three opening Big 12 wins are against the worst teams in the conference, and one of them was a too close for comfort win over Kansas. against TCU and West Virginia, things got ugly in 20-plus point defeats.
The Wildcats also have a tough remaining Schedule with road Games at TCU, West Virginia and Baylor. However, they already beat Oklahoma on the road and have shown they can play with anyone. They have now covered in five straight Games (Four at home), which is a main reason the money is coming in on them. (71% of the action thus far)
KSU also has the head-to-head edge in this matchup, covering five of the last six and eight of the last 10 meetings. However, the Cowboys have actually won Four of the last five Games. Yet, this is only the second time in seven contests that Kansas State is favored. The Cowboys won at home 33-29 last year as a 12.5-point favorite even though they were outgained yardage wise.
OSU has not done much offensively against better teams. Daxx Garman is still a work in progress in his first year as the team’s starting quarterback. He’s completing less than 55% of his passes and only has three TDs compared to seven interceptions over the last Four Games. It’s unlikely those numbers will improve in this one. It doesn’t help that the Cowboys aren’t a great running team, rushing for 3.8 yards per carry. Desmond Roland (512 yards, 7 TDs), OK State’s top running back, hasn’t broken the 100-yard mark yet.
To make matters worse, the Cowboys don’t have a great defense either. That’s what happens when the offense has trouble staying on the field.
It’ll probably be more of the same here against Jake Waters and company. Waters was actually bottled up last week against Texas, but the Wildcats still churned out a 23-0 win, led by five scoring drives, all of which were at least eight plays.
Waters has now completed at least 60% of his passes in five straight Games, while also keeping defenses honest with his legs. His nine passing TDs don’t look great, but he has rushed for seven more. Tyler Lockett and Currey Sexton are a tough duo to stop in the passing Game, and the backfield of Charles Jones and DeMarcus Robinson has worked well.
The Cowboys have not covered in six straight Games against a team with a winning record and are 1-5 ATS in their last six Big 12 Games. As said before, the Wildcats have covered in five straight Games and are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.
LAying double digits isn’t something we like to do and is the reason we won’t play this one as a Key Release. However, Our model has Kansas State winning this one by 19-25 points and that’s the way we’ll go with this one. You should still be able to find -14. Kansas State -14.