Oregon
vs.
Cal
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/24/14
It wasn’t long ago that some people were giving too much respect to California. That respect is all but gone after two home losses and now they get to face Oregon. The Ducks are heavy -17.5 point favorites at Sportsbook.ag, even on the road.
After losing at home to Arizona, the Ducks are starting to take things for real and have won and covered in their last two Games. It’s likely that they’ll be decent favorites in the rest of their regular season Games, and with Stanford losing again, Oregon has a nice route to the Pac-12 championship Game.
The same definitely can’t be said about California, but this is a team on the upswing after just one total win last season. They already have two Conference wins, which would be enough for the entire season after the 2013 effort. While those wins were in double OT against Colorado and by one point against Washington State, they are still wins. The fact that the Bears battled with UCLA to only lose by two points last weekend shows how much they’ll compete.
As expected, Oregon has dominated this matchup as of late, winning the last five and covering in Four of those. The Ducks have scored at least 55 points in the last two meetings while covering as 30-plus point favorites. California’s defense hasn’t been much better this season, so holding Oregon down may not be possible.
Marcus Mariota, the Heisman frontrunner, still hasn’t thrown an interception this season, to go with 24 total touchdowns. He’s completing 70.2% of his passes for 1,957 yards in seven Games. It’s hard to see how California will stop Mariota. In the backfield, Royce Freeman has led the way and is coming off a 169-yard, 4-TD performance against Washington.
California just gave up 400-plus total yards to Brett Hundley last week, and also gave up 49-plus points in three straight Games previously in the season. since the Bears defense isn’t good, they’ll need to rely on the offense to cover.
From the outside, the Golden Bears look more like a pass-heavy team, but they have kept with the run more this season as opposed to previous ones. Jared Goff is having a great season at QB with 24 TDs and 4 INTs, which is something that California hasn’t had in a while. In addition, running back Daniel Lasco is seeing a decent amount of touches and has compiled 523 rushing yards to go with six TDs. The offense is more balanced and it has helped.
The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 Games on the road. The Golden Bears are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home Games, but again, have been better overall this season. The home team has covered in five of the last six meetings between these schools.
Our model has Oregon winning this Game by 25. However, that’s just one TD from the current posted line. In a Game that figures to see both teams find the end zone often, that one TD cushion simply isn’t enough. Oregon will get their points because frankly, Cal can’t stop anyone. However, the Ducks had given up 30+ points in 3 consecutive Games prior to holding Washington to 20 last week. Cal will get their points here as well and as we always like to say, the back door is always open in a spot like this. Cal +17.5