Oregon
vs.
Washington State
PAC-12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/20/14
Pac-12 football is here. Once again, Oregon looks in prime position to win the Conference and compete in the College Football Playoff. Will this finally be the year they put it all together and don’t slip up? It starts with a road Game at Washington State, where the Ducks are -24 point favorites.
Everyone knows what the Cougars are about and there’s no hiding it. Mike Leach’s team tends to be pass-heavy and it’s evident in their 517 pass yards and 40 rush yards per Game. Those are ridiculous numbers that have them sitting with a 1-2 record.
Oregon hasn’t had a problem with this matchup, winning the last seven meetings, although Washington State has covered in the last Four. However, this is set to be the smallest spread between these schools since 2008. At this point, it’s looking like a good bet that Oregon puts 50 points on this board in this one, especially if a team like Rutgers can Score41 on Wazzu.
Last year, the Ducks won 62-38 as Connor Halliday passed for 557 yards, 4 TDs and 4 INTs. Also, the Cougars only had two rushing yards as a team. Will Oregon be able to stop this passing threat to cover the spread? It’s very possible. The Ducks seem to have a better rush defense this year, which should help them focus solely on the passing Game from the start. The back-door cover is always a threat for this Washington State team as well, though.
Oregon will Scorejust fine and will be looking to get out to a better start than last week when they didn’t Scorein the first quarter. If they do get out to a quick start, the better. Marcus Mariota is looking like his usual self with 11 total touchdowns, zero interceptions and completing 70 percent of his passes. The Ducks have playmakers everywhere, including three running backs that already have at least 150 yards in Royce Freeman, Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner. Speed is all around at wide out as well.
The chances of Washington State stopping this offense from scoring 50-plus points is slim considering how they have started the season.
It will be up to Halliday. Interceptions are always a problem with the amount he throws it. In his past 16 Games, Halliday only has one Game in which he didn’t toss a pick. He attempted 89 passes in this matchup last year which is kind of unbelievable. So far, this offense hasn’t looked as potent as a year ago as seen in the loss to Rutgers and only a 13-point effort against a woeful Nevada defense. The Mike Leach experiment seems to have hit a wall.
The Ducks will be looking to dominate both sides of the ball in their Conference opener.
The Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road Games, but haven’t covered in their last Four Conference Games. Meanwhile the Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five Pac-12 Games, but just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Games following a win by more than 20 points.
In all likelihood this one comes in right around the number. If you read these pages regularly, you know we hate to lay big numbers like this especially against a Mike Leach type of a team as that back door cover is always a possibility. Instead, let’s take a stab at Oregon in the 1st quarter here. After being shut out last week in the 1st quarter and actually trailing Wyoming 7-0, look for Oregon to get off to a fast start this week and from there, it’s off to the races. Oregon minus for the 1st quarter.