South Carolina
vs.
Auburn
SEC
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/25/14
At one point, this Game looked like the possible preview for the SEC Championship Game. Instead, after a few losses, that is far from the case, especially for South Carolina. After opening -14.5, the Auburn Tigers are monster -17.5 point home favorites at the largest offshore sportsbook in the world Sportsbook.ag
South Carolina hasn’t done a whole lot this season outside of beating Georgia. The early-season loss to Texas A&M doesn’t look like much nowadays and losses to Missouri and Kentucky bring their SEC record to 2-3. Not the type of start Gamecock fans imagined before the season.
Auburn still has a shot in the SEC, but it’s a long shot. They still have to travel to Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama, all three currently in the AP Top 10. That’s a rough Schedule and they already have struggled in their two road Games this year at Kansas State and Mississippi State. However, at home where this Game is, the Tigers look great, winning each Game easily.
With how South Carolina’s defense has looked this season, it doesn’t look likely they’ll stop this Auburn attack. The last time these teams played was in 2011, so there isn’t much familiarity with the current squads.
On the road, the Gamecocks have given up 34 points to Vanderbilt and 45 points to Kentucky. Now against one of the better offenses in the country, what will they do?
The Tigers are coming off a bye and are ready to forget about their loss to Miss. State. Nick Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne have carved through opponents and will look to do the same here. Marshall is still an iffy passer, and that showed up against the Bulldogs as he tossed a couple interceptions and completed less than 50 percent of his passes. It seems unlikely that USC will stop Auburn’s running Game in this one, meaning Marshall won’t be forced to pass much.
On the other side, Auburn’s defense was looking great until they got beat up by Dak Prescott. Needless to say, Dylan Thompson is not the same type of player. While the Gamecocks are still scoring a decent 35 points per Game, they struggle in a few areas offensively. Thompson lacks consistency, although his numbers on the season aren’t bad with 61.3% completion and 15 TDs/6 INTs. They’ll try and ride the running Game behind Mike Davis (662 yards, 8 TDs) as much as possible. If they succeed, that should keep the clock running and keep Auburn’s offense off the field.
The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six Conference Games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight road Games. The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Conference Games, are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home Games and have a bunch more positive trends. The Tigers are also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools, but again they haven’t played since 2011.
This is NOT a Game we’ll be getting involved with. Our Score Prediction model has Auburn winning this one comfortably by 30 points. SC simply can’t stop anyone and certainly doesn’t figure to stop this high powered Auburn offense. But their offense can put points on the board and they are still a dangerous team. The talent is there. SC simply couldn’t put it together this year. That happens to teams. But the talent is there and we wouldn’t be shocked to see this team come together as a team and prove that point before the year is out. They should be the looser of the two teams with nothing to lose which also allows them to take chances they might not normally take. That makes them dangerous here. We won’t be playing this Game, but we’ll call for the SC cover. South Carolina +17.5