Stanford Oregon Football Pick

142
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Stanford

vs.

Oregon

Free College

Football Pick

11/1/14

Oregon opened as huge -12 point home favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook, but that line has shot down to -7 -115 as of Wednesday morning. A lot of the Stanford money likely has to do with the last two Games between these teams.

In 2012, the Cardinal travelled to Oregon and won 17-14 as 18.5-point underdogs. Last season, the Cardinal won at home 26-20 as a 10-point underdog. Bettors surely don’t want to be fooled three straight times in this matchup.

However, as we look closer into this Game, is this really the same Stanford team? They already have three losses and the offense has yet to impress against a solid team. In fact, in their three losses, the Cardinal are averaging just under 12 points per Game. That’s not going to cut it. Their only road win of the year was a 20-13 Game at Washington.

As for the Ducks, a win here would give them a clear path to the Pac-12 championship Game as every other North team would have at least three Conference losses. OUtside of their lone loss to Arizona, Oregon has been hands down the best team in all of their Games, including wins over Michigan State and UCLA.

A closer look at Stanford’s troubles show a poor running Game, which hasn’t been the case for this team in a while. Even in a 38-14 win last weekend, they only averaged 4.3 yards per carry. In Stanford’s last two upsets over Oregon, they rushed for over 200 yards in both Games. The Cardinal are averaging 141 rushing yards per Game this year. Leading running back Remound Wright (326 yards) had nine carries for eight yards last Saturday. Without the run Game, Kevin Hogan is forced to do more than he is capable of. That shows in his numbers as his rating is down from last year and he’s completing one less yard per attempt. They try and get Ty Montgomery plenty of touches, but without a running Game, that doesn’t always cut it.

Stanford still has a great defense, allowing 12.5 points per Game on the year. Can they make it another year holding down this high-powered Oregon attack?

Marcus Mariota has the inside track to the Heisman right now, as long as the Ducks keep winning. Mariota’s numbers are better, and he’s playing more efficiently this season. He’s completing 68.8% of his passes to go with a crazy 24 passing TDs and only one interception. Stanford usually bottles Mariota up on the ground so that shouldn’t be a factor, but someone will need to get going and that will probably be Royce Freeman (748 yards, 13 TDs).

Needless to say, the Ducks know what they are in for in this Game. They know they’ve had trouble scoring on Stanford, but if the Cardinal can’t move the ball, that advantage changes, leaving Oregon with more opportunities on the offensive end. You don’t want to give more opportunities to Mariota.

The Cardinal have not covered in six straight Games following an ATS win and haven’t covered in Four straight road Games. The Ducks are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home Games, but 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following an ATS win. Surprisingly, the over has hit in seven of the past nine meetings.

The line move is understandable and in fact if this Game never moved, or moved only as far as +10, we’d be using Stanford as a Key Release. Their defense is one of the best in the land and that alone makes Stanford worth a look. Despite 3 losses, this is still a very good football team and this defense has contained some very good offenses this year.

Our model has this Game anywhere from pick em to Oregon by 5, depending on the parameters used.

Other than giving away significant value in the line, one other red flag if considering Stanford is their turnover margin differential. They are -8, one of the worst in the nation while the Ducks are +11. A difference of 21 between the two, which is very significant. A positive ratio is one trait all good teams have in common so beware.

We’ll play this one by the numbers though because despite the big line move, the numbers suggest Stanford is still the right side. Stanford +7.5

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