Western Kentucky
vs.
Illinois
College Football Pick
9/6/14
The Fighting Illini will look to start 2-0 as they host another team looking to go 2-0, Western Kentucky. Illinois opened as a -7 point favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook and has been bet down to -6 as of this writing on Monday afternoon.
5 dimes isn’t the first to post lines though. Betonline is. The line history on this Game is a classic example of why every player should have a betonline account. They opened Illinois as a -1.5 point favorite and bettors moved that number to -3, -3.5, -4 and -4.5 before the big jump to -7 when the rest of the books posted their lines. If you told someone not in the know you could have had Illinois -1.5 they’d likely think your nuts.
Back to the Game. One trap you need to be wary of as a bettor is having a short term memory. This is a Game that falls into that category. Kind of. Bettors generally put too much emphasis on the week before. In this spot, all we have to go on is the week before. However, the short term memory problem still comes into play.
Here’s what I’m referring to. Illinois struggled and had to come from behind to beat little ol Youngstown State last week 29-17. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky was running up the Scoreon Bowling Green 59-31. As a result, many novice bettors assume Illinois is a poor team in for a long year while Western Kentucky is an offensive juggernaut ready to shred any defense they face. Either of those scenarios is possible of course, but more times than not, it simply doesn’t play out that way. Be careful.
Really not crazy about this matchup. Using mostly data from last season we have Illinois on top by 7 to 10 points. The feeling here is that Illinois is a little better this year than they were a year ago and Western Kentucky is likely in the same boat (although having to work with a new coach).
The line move to -6, along with any additional movement in that direction, could present some value with the Illinois side. As an opinion only – Illinois -6 or better.