Duke
vs.
North Carolina
College Basketball
Pick – Analysis
3/7/15
The rematch is here. It seems like every time these teams meet, the fans are never disappointed. When they played earlier this season at Cameron Indoor, it went to overtime with the home team winning. What will happen when these teams meet in Chapel Hill on Saturday?
The Tar Heels have struggled a bit in the final month of the season, but with a couple road wins, seem to be back on the right side of things. Before that, in a month-long stretch, they lost five of seven Games. They’ll be ready for this one and could lock in a 4-seed for March Madness with a win.
Duke has been cruising for the most part, having not lost since a road Game at Notre Dame back in January. The Blue Devils look primed for a 1-seed and may even be able to lock it up with a big road win here.
In the first Game, it was kind of the tale of two halves with Duke controlling the first, and then Jahlil Okafor went down with an ankle injury. While he returned, UNC had the edge in the second half, but Duke prevailed 92-90 in overtime.
Even though the Tar Heels scored a ridiculous 62 paint points (the most Duke has allowed in the last Four seasons), it wasn’t enough in the end. The Blue Devils had their way on offense as well, shooting above 50% from the field and 10-of-16 from long range. There’s no reason to think this Game will be much different. North Carolina will once again have an edge in the paint and on the boards, and Duke should see plenty of open looks on the offensive end.
Despite Duke’s better ranking, North Carolina isn’t all that far behind them, but they’ve just had problems with consistency all year. You have to think the Tar Heels will bring their A-Game and if not win this Game, they’ll once again battle until the final whistle.
Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks (36 points and 19 rebounds) should once again have the edge against a Duke team that only really has Okafor as a true big man and a depth-deficient squad. Joel James and Isaiah Hicks are also factors off the bench for the Heels. J.P. Tokoto had 15 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists in the first Game. Marcus Paige struggled with only five points on 2-of-11 shooting so that’s an area they can improve on from the last Game.
But what can the Tar Heels do on defense? They had 26 fouls as a team with Meeks and Johnson combining for nine of those. Having to deal with Okafor as well as guys that can take it to the rim whenever they want in Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones, it’s not easy. Okafor has looked healthy and will once again be a pain. If Jones or Quinn Cook are hitting their shots from outside, not many teams can beat Duke in the country.
It shouldn’t be assumed that Duke is going to win this Game. If North Carolina plays its Game, at home, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them get the big win.
Our Pick – We’ll go with North Carolina to get their revenge here. NC by 5