Notre Dame
vs.
Kentucky
Elite 8
Pick – Analysis
3/28/15
These teams got by without many problems in the Sweet 16. Kentucky flexed its muscle from the start against overmatched West Virginia, while Notre Dame’s offense led the way as it has all season against Wichita State. This should be a better Game, but with Kentucky, there are no guarantees. The Wildcats opened as a -10.5 point favorite, although movement is expected after their most recent dominant win.
This may be an Elite 8 Game, but Kentucky’s size and depth advantage is going to be a huge factor. Notre Dame’s easiest Game of the Tournament unsurprisingly came against Wichita State, a fellow squad without much size. The Irish had more trouble against Northeastern and Butler because those teams had big guys they could go down low to and draw fouls with. And everyone knows how big the Wildcats are.
The one way Notre Dame has a shot of winning, or even covering, is on the offensive end. The Irish lead the country in points per possession and hit 51% of their shots. Will that be the case against a huge Kentucky team that rarely gives up anything in the paint? Zach Auguste is a good player at 6-foot-10, but he absolutely cannot get into foul trouble, which he often does against teams that attack him. Even then he’ll have trouble offensively against Kentucky’s shot blockers.
The Irish will probably have to rely on their other Four starters to hit shots. Their bench only totaled 18 minutes last Game, and having 6’5″ Bonzie Colson come off the bench as the team’s center will be tough. Notre Dame isn’t a great defensive team either.
Jerian Grant will have to continue his great play, not only scoring, but setting up his teammates. Demetrius Jackson is 7-of-10 from long range in the Tournament and Steve Vasturia and Pat Connaughton are both deadly from long range as well. Notre Dame won the ACC Tournament so it’s not like this team won’t be ready for what Kentucky brings. They beat a similarly sized North Carolina team twice. In the most recent matchup, the Irish beat UNC by making threes (10-of-20) and getting to the free-throw line (28-of-32). Grant attempted 18 free throws in that Game.
Grant has the talent and size to deal with what Kentucky brings and one of the Harrison twins will likely start out on him. If he can win that matchup, that will in turn cause other guys to help out on Grant, and that’s when Grant’s passing ability shows up. He can find the knockdown shooters on the outside and Notre Dame is not lacking them. The problem is, the Irish are going to have tons of problems scoring in the paint, whether from Auguste or with one of the guards driving. West Virginia had similar issues against UK, but the Mountaineers’ shooting is a step below Notre Dame’s.
The Wildcats are loaded with size and should be able to dominate the glass, more importantly the offensive boards. UND will already have trouble with Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns in the paint, but even Trey Lyles is going to be an issue because they’ll need to put Jerian Grant or Steve Vasturia on him.
It’s unlikely the Irish will be able to stop Kentucky from scoring, which means the only way they’ll have a chance is on the offensive end. That’s nothing new for Notre Dame, but how much will the size of Kentucky affect what the Irish do?
And then if anyone on Notre Dame gets into foul trouble, that’ll make the task even harder for a team that doesn’t have a bench. The Wildcats draw a lot of fouls due to their size.
Notre Dame may be able to keep up with its scoring, but getting a win is another story because its defense (especially in the post) is going to be a major liability against Kentucky.