Texas
vs.
Baylor
College Basketball
Pick with Analysis
1/31/15
At this point, there is no questioning how good Baylor is at home. No matter what the matchup is for the rest of the season, the Bears will likely be the favorite. That’s not good news for Texas, a team that’s had trouble stringing together more than a couple wins in Big 12 play.
Baylor is only 3-3 in Conference play, yet sport the No. 20 ranking in the AP Polls. The Bears have had some tough home Games this year, but that’s also where they’ve had their best wins. They fell to Kansas by one point, but also beat Iowa State by one and this past weekend beat Oklahoma by double digits after losing to them on the road by 10. To beat Baylor in Waco, you need to be on your Game.
That doesn’t exactly describe Texas. The Longhorns lost two Games badly in early January before handling West Virginia and TCU in their next Game. against Kansas, Texas was actually the favorite at home, but they crumbled towards the end and lost by 13 points. During the week at Iowa State, they fell behind big, but managed to make a Game of it in the second half. We don’t know what team is going to show up every night and they haven’t exactly been great on the road either.
Texas’ best asset is their size and rebounding. Unfortunately for them, Baylor is also a big team and just as good of rebounders. With that said, this Game could could still come down to the play of the guards, unless of course one team dominates the boards, which shouldn’t be the case.
Kenny Chery is a playmaker and has the ability to win Games for Baylor when it’s close. He’ll be matched up with Isaiah Taylor, who’s probably a little rougher around the edges. Taylor has looked better in recent Games going for 13/7/6 against TCU and 23 points against Kansas, but he’ll need to keep up that pace for him to become one of the best guards in the conference. When he came back from injury, Taylor was really struggling to shoot the ball, which hurt his numbers plenty. These guys have plenty of similarities, as Chery hasn’t shot the ball as well this year either, but has been better from long range, something Taylor can’t say.
Down low, Texas will have to find a way to keep Rico Gathers in check. They have the bodies to do it, but can they? Gathers averages 11.9 rebounds per Game despite being just 6’8″. The guy is all over the place and also scores 10.7 points per Game. Cameron Ridley doesn’t have the athleticism to deal with Gathers, so it may fall to Myles Turner. Texas also has Javan Felix, but he has really struggled this year and is super streaky as seen in a zero-point outing vs. Kansas, then a 20-point Game off the bench at ISU.
The Longhorns went with a three-guard look in the second half at Iowa State and it worked well, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they came out with that lineup for this Game.
In addition to Chery for Baylor, they can stretch the floor with bigger guys like Taurean Prine and Royce O’Neale. Because of this and their athleticism, the effectiveness of a guy like Cameron Ridley could be limited.
At this point, there wouldn’t be much reason to take the Longhorns in this Game. The teams are fairly similar, but with Baylor at home, they have the immediate advantage. Of course, the last time Texas lost two straight Games, they went out and destroyed West Virginia by 27 points, albeit at home. Can the Longhorns stop a three-Game losing streak from happening?
Our Pick – Texas by 3