Denver Broncos
vs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Week 16 Pick
By Jason Green
12/25/16
The Broncos are at 8-6, but they can’t catch the Raiders in the AFC West and they trail KC by 2 Games. The best they hope for is a Wild Card, but they likely need to win their last 2 Games and they still may need help. Denver has dropped 2 straight Games and while their defense played well in both their offense struggled only combining for 13 points. The Broncos are led by their 4th ranked defense and Von Miller, who ranks 2nd in the NFL in sacks.
The Chiefs can likely snag a Wild Card with a win in this Game. They can even win the AFC West and catch the Raiders if they slip up, as they trail them by 1 Game and beat them twice this season, so they hold the tiebreaker. The dropped their last Game losing on a 53-yard FG with no time left against the surging Tennessee Titans and that Game was in Kansas City. The Chiefs beat the Broncos 30-27 in overtime earlier this season in the Mile High City.
The Broncos have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 Games facing the Chiefs in Kansas City.
The Broncos lost badly at home in their last Game falling the New England Patriots 16-3 where they did not cover as a 3-point underdog.
The Chiefs lost to the Titans 19-17 at home in their last Game where they did not cover the spread as a 6-point favorite.
In their loss to the Patriots the Broncos only had 4 fewer total yards, but they had 3 turnovers and only rushed for 54 yards. While Trevor Siemian had 282 passing yards and he had 0 TD and 1 INT and lead rusher Justin Forsett was stuffed to the tune of only 37 yards. KC’s defense does not look great on paper (19th against the pass 28th against the run), but overall they rank a solid 8th in opponents’ ppg, so they are keeping teams out of the end zone.
The loss to the Titans snapped the Chiefs 3-Game win streak and in the Game QB Alex Smith only passed for 168 yards with 1 INT and no TD. Pro Bowler Tyreek Hill had a 68 TD run in the Game, but he is a return guy and main RB SpeNCer Ware rushed for 70 yards. While the Broncos have the top-ranked pass defense in the league they only rank 29th defending the run. However, KC has struggled to run the ball this season and can they take advantage of that?
Denver is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Games following a straight up loss, 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 6 Games on the road the posted total has gone Under 5 times.
Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home Games, 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 10 Games the posted total has gone Under 8 times.
Bettorsworld Pick – Broncos +3.5