Kansas City Chiefs
vs.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 4
NFL Free Pick
10/2/16
Kansas City is tasked with heading to Pittsburgh in Week 5 of the NFL season. This proposition is already difficult enough, but they’ll be attempting a win as Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing performance in a 34-3 loss at Philadelphia and with more help on the way for the Steelers. Pittsburgh is a 4.5-point favorite.
The aforementioned help coming for the Steelers is in the form of running back Le’Veon Bell, who is back from serving his 3-Game suspension to open the season. Bell is coming off a season in which he ran for over 550 yards and caught passes for over another 130 yards. He’ll be added to a backfield that’s already had its fair share of success this season. DeAngelo Williams has looked like a younger version of himself, rushing for 258 yards, receiving 89 yards and scoring three combined touchdowns in Pittsburgh’s first three Games.
Ben Roethlisberger was held to his worst performance of the season his last time out, so watch for him to have a bouNCe-back Game here in Week 4. Bell should help add to an already dynamic passing Game as well. Antonio Brown is Fourth in the NFL in receiving yards, after three weeks. Sammie Coates may only be catching a couple of passes a Game, but he’s doing a lot with them. Coates has 203 yards on connections from Roethlisberger, averaging 29.0 yards per reception.
Kansas City is surrendering 123.0 rushing yards per Game — good for only 24th in the league. Watch for the duo of Bell and Williams to cause some problems for the Chiefs.
Alex Smith has protected the football as the season has begun. He has thrown for just over 250 yards per Game, three touchdowns and one interception. There isn’t a deep isn’t much of a deep threat when facing the Chiefs as they play fairly conservatively with their passing Game. This should come as good news to the Steelers as they have allowed an average of 332.0 passing yards per Game through the first three weeks.
SpeNCer Ware has been the most consistent weapon for Kansas City in the early stages of the 2016 season. Ware is averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 41 attempts out of the backfield. In addition, Ware is the Chiefs’ second-leading receiver with 185 yards on 10 receptions. Pittsburgh has been excellent against the run, allowing only 75.3 yards per Game on the ground so far — good for 4th-best in the NFL.
Watch out for Kansas City ability to win the turnover battle. They are plus-five on the year in turnover margin, while the Steelers are minus-one.
Prediction: The Steelers were awful a week ago. Sure, the Eagles played great and were better in that one Game, but we can’t expect Pittsburgh to have that kind of disappointing showing again. However, the Bettorsworld Score Prediction model has this one coming down to the wire in a nailbiter. Chiefs +4.5