Hawaii Bowl Pick
Middle Tennessee St
vs.
Hawaii
12/24/16
For Hawaii’s troubles of having to travel a ridiculous amount of miles this season, they get to host the Hawaii Bowl against Middle Tennessee State. The Rainbow Warriors used to be a regular in this bowl in the mid-to-late 2000s, but haven’t appeared in it since 2010, mainly due to not being any good. Keep an eye on 5Dimes Sportsbook for the spread as it still wasn’t released two weeks before the Game due to a key injury.
That key injury is Middle Tennessee quarterback Brent Stockstill, who broke his collarbone in November and missed the final few Games of the year. Just weeks before the bowl, he was still hoping to return.
That’s important because the Blue Raiders only go as their offense goes as seen in just about every Game this season. In their last Four wins, they scored a ridiculous amount, but also gave up 40 points per Game. Due to having a bad defense, this team hasn’t shown any consistency throughout the season, although their bad losses came partly due to Stockstill’s injury.
The same can be said for Hawaii, who has gotten absolutely crushed by any relevant competition this season and had lost Four of five before winning their final two Games. But beating a one-win Fresno State team by one point shouldn’t instill much confidence in bettors. Then again, the Rainbow Warriors do have that nice road win at Air Force in the middle of the season, their only good win of the year.
The loss of Stockstill would be an obvious detriment to MTSU’s offense, which is why it took awhile for the line to be released. He had 27 TDs and just 5 INTs in about 8.5 Games worth. His backup, John Urzua, threw eight interceptions in 230 fewer pass attempts. Of course, he also picked up a concussion in the season finale and made their QB situation even murkier. At the least, the Blue Raiders still have a potent ground Game between I’Tavius Mathers (1,504 yards, 16 TDs) and do-it-all wide receiver Richie James. James leads the team with 97 receptions for 1,463 yards and 11 touchdowns, but also ran for 207 yards and three touchdowns and also acted as quarterback in the 77-56 win in the regular season finale.
Hawaii’s defense isn’t very good and one of the worst in the nation at stopping the run, allowing 244 rushing yards per Game. against any viable offense, they’ve struggled mightily. It’ll be up to the Hawaii offense to keep this Game close. And with how the Middle Tennessee defense has looked over the last couple months, it’s possible for Hawaii to stick around.
Freshman quarterback Dru Brown leads the charge and while he’s had his ups and downs, he did what was asked of him in their final win, throwing for 311 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, he only threw one touchdown in the previous Four Games so that also needs to be considered. If Brown can build off that last Game with receiver Marcus Kemp (1,036 yards, 7 TDs), which is more than possible, they should keep this Game close. The Rainbow Warriors have also ran the ball fairly well with a trio of backs with Diocemy Saint Juste (836 yards) leading the way.
This Hawaii offense isn’t completely terrible, which is just enough to Scoreon Middle Tennessee State.
The Rainbow Warriors have not covered in their last five Games overall and are 1-4 ATS in their last five against the C-USA. The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl Games. The over is 13-4 in Hawaii’s last 17 overall and 6-1 in Middle Tennessee’s last seven.
Our Pick – This Game is still off the board as of December 19th due to the status of Mid Tenn QB Stockstill. But we can tell you that Our model predicts this Game to be a high scoring toss up with both teams scoring in the 40’s.
Stockstill will likely play. Either way, we’d be willing to back either side in this one if getting +3 or more.