Indiana
vs.
Ohio State
Big 10
College Football Pick
10/8/16
While the teams below Ohio State in the Big Ten are moving around in the standings, the Buckeyes remain the constant, which isn’t all that surprising. In another extremely favorable home match, Ohio State gets Indiana in Columbus. They are currently a -29 point favorite as seen at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.
It’s been smooth sailing for the Bucks to say the least. They’ve covered in every Game and absolutely destroyed the weaker teams on the Schedule, most notably a 58-0 win over Rutgers last weekend. Even a 45-24 win at Oklahoma can be put in that ‘destroyed’ category. Will Indiana be the next victim? Probably.
The Hoosiers are coming off a huge win in which they took down Michigan State in overtime, but this Spartans team is not the same one from a year ago. Look no further than Indiana’s home loss to Wake Forest or a 10-point win over Ball State to see the team’s true identity. That’s why the spread is so big.
All things considered, the Hoosiers almost pulled the upset in this meeting a year ago, falling 34-27 at home. The difference this year is that Ohio State is actually playing well and doesn’t have a quarterback controversy with J.T. Barrett leading the charge. That sums up everything for this Game.
Indiana’s defense has been fine this season, but hasn’t really seen a potent offense and allowing 33 points to Wake Forest isn’t all that promising. Coming off a high against Michigan State, one has to think the Hoosiers will fall back to earth here.
Barrett is doing whatever he wants right now and that’s seen in his completion percentage, which is near 70% and his 14-2 TD-INT ratio. Mike Weber is averaging 7.3 yards per carry with do-it-all Curtis Samuel at 8.0 yards per carry and 15.0 yards per reception. In this Game last year, Ezekiel Elliott ran for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Expect these three guys to run for 300 or more combined yards, not too far off from the Rutgers Game.
With the Buckeyes expected to Score40-plus again (if not 50), Indiana will need to Scorein order to cover. The Hoosiers were held down for a good portion of that Michigan State Game, but came through late and managed 21 straight points. But that doesn’t exactly mean much.
Richard LAgow is still a work-in-progress at quarterback as seen in his six interceptions the last two Games. He’ll make a few big plays, but OSU has seen much better offenses and has dealt with all of them. The Hoosiers will need to get Devine Redding going to at least have a shot to cover. Redding was okay against the Spartans, rushing for 100 yards, but 36 of those came on one carry. If Redding can’t find room, it may be tough for Indiana to surpass 10 points in this one.
And because Indiana just beat Michigan State, you have to think Urban Meyer will not let his team take the foot off the pedal.
The Hoosiers have covered in Four straight Big Ten Games, but are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road Games against a team with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have covered six straight overall and Four straight at home.
Our Pick – This line has to be viewed as ridiculous, regardless of what the eventual outcome is. Last years Game was decided by a touchdown. If you gave Indiana 29 points the last 7 in this series, they would have covered all 7. In fact if you gave Indiana 29 in this series at anytime, they would have covered most of those Games.
Ohio State blew out Bowling Green, Tulsa and Rutgers and beat an Oklahoma team with one of the worst defenses the Sooners have fielded in years. Hence, the big number on this Game, with the Indiana win over Michigan State apparently being tossed to the side.
We’ll take Our chances with the Hoosiers here getting 4+ TD’s. Indiana +29