LSU
vs.
Auburn
SEC
College Football Pick
9/24/16
Auburn wanted to be better this year, but right now nothing is going in their favor already with a 1-2 record. The same can somewhat be said about LSU, but at least they won their SEC opener. With this Game being a blowout last year, LSU still opened as just a -3.5 point favorite at betonline Sportsbook.
In last season’s meeting, it was Leonard Fournette all Game. The LSU Tigers ran for a ridiculous 411 yards and five touchdowns with Fournette raking in 228 of those yards on just 19 carries. That’s 12 yards per carry against an SEC team, something that almost never happens. Because of that, quarterback Brandon Harris didn’t have to do much, while Jeremy Johnson couldn’t really do anything on the other end with the Auburn running Game getting 160 yards themselves, but on 37 carries.
The reason this line is lower is mostly because of LSU’s struggles in the early going. While their defense has been good, the offense hasn’t been able to take the Tigers to the next level, getting just 14 points against Wisconsin and 23 in last week’s win over Mississippi State.
It’s obviously an issue, but with the LSU defense looking the way it does, how many points will Auburn be able to score? Quarterback Sean White is completing 63.4% of his passes through three Games, but still only has 510 yards and three touchdowns. They couldn’t do anything against Clemson (13 points) and again struggled against Texas A&M last weekend (16 points). In the A&M loss, it was the running Game that led the way with 236 yards, with Kamryn Pettway leading with 123 of those.
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But it can’t be forgotten that LSU’s defense is probably better than both of those teams’. Auburn may be at home, but that won’t allow them to Scorepoints. At this point, it’s hard to see the Tigers scoring more than 20 points against a decent defense this season and for this one, they’ll likely be around the 14-point mark.
So it’ll come down to what Auburn’s run defense can do against LSU and Fournette. Just last week, A&M ran for 231 yards and 6.2 yards per carry against Auburn. With the dynamic combo of Fournette and Derrius Grice in the backfield, and considering how this Game turned out last year, those two should be in for another nice Game. Expecting Auburn to stop Fournette seems like a long shot and with that, even on the road, LSU is the easier team to back.
But if the ground Game is just a tad worse than last year and quarterback Danny Etling is forced to throw too much, then this could be another close Game for LSU, which has already happened twice this year.
Our Pick – Auburn +3.5