Miami
vs.
Georgia Tech
ACC
College Football
Free Pick
10/1/16
By Jason Green
Miami is undefeated and ranked 14th in the nation and on top of that they have the nation’s top scoring defense only allowing an average of 7.7 ppg. However, are they that good? I mean their first 3 opponents have been Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, and Appalachian State.
Tech suffered their first defeat of the season in their last Game, but they already matched last season’s win total and they have played a much tougher early season Schedule than Miami. Their D has been solid so far on the season and even in the loss last week to a top 5 Clemson team they only gave up 26 points.
In their last Games Miami crushed Appalachian State 45-10 easily covering as a 4.5-point favorite and Georgia Tech lost Clemson 26-7 failing to cover as a 10.5-point underdog.
Last season at Miami the Canes beat the Jackets 38-21 and covered the spread. Miami has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 Games facing Georgia Tech.
While Miami QB Brad Kaaya came into the season with Heisman hype and he has played well it in the Canes’ rushing offense that has been very impressive on the young season. Mark Walton already has over 400 rushing yards and Joseph Yearby has chimed in for 256 yards on the ground as well.
Tech has a decent defense, but they gave up over 400 total yards in the loss to Clemson.
What is key for Tech is running the ball, which they did not do against Clemson with less than 100 yards on the ground. They have to run the ball to win, as they will not air it out much only ranking 125th in the nation in passing yards per Game.
The Yellow Jackets have 4 players that have at least 110 rushing yards and they spread the ball around in their triple-option attack. QB Justin Thomas is the team’s 2nd leading rusher and he has passed for 364 yards, but only has 1 TD.
OK, so Miami does rank 4th in the nation defending the run. However, they have played a weak Schedule and this will be their first test.
Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games and they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games in the month of October.
Tech is only 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 Games and they have only covered the spread in 2 of their last 7 home Games.
Jason’s Pick: Miami has not played a tough Schedule, to say the least, but they are solid on both sides of the ball and are playing well under former Georgia head coach Mark Richt. I don’t see a blowout in this one, but Miami will stay in the ranks of the unbeaten with a win and the will cover the 7-point spread.
***Note – Bettorsworld disagrees with Jason here, using Georgia Tech as a Key Release this week.