Navy
vs.
Notre Dame
College Football Pick
11/5/16
There was a time when both of these teams were ranked, but it’s unlikely that’ll happen again this season. Navy has had a fairly successful campaign without Keenan Reynolds, but come into this one after a loss. Notre Dame has won five straight in this matchup and is hoping to build its first winning streak of the season.
The biggest thing to take away for this Game might be that this is at a neutral site. Navy has been noticeably much better at home than in road Games, so that’s something to consider. The Midshipmen have wins over Houston and Memphis at home, but haven’t looked good at all in any of their road Games, losing two and barely getting by Tulane.
As for Notre Dame, it hasn’t really mattered where they play, the Fighting Irish have just been bad. They are coming off a win against Miami, but the Hurricanes are having issues of their own. There’s no telling what this team will do and making this line at a touchdown seems like too much considering they already lost to NC State and Duke this year.
The best news for Notre Dame is that Navy’s defense has not looked as of late, which could help DeShone Kizer turn it around. After a great start, Kizer has really struggled to get anything going with just two touchdowns and three interceptions in the last three Games. Navy may have good overall numbers for the season, but they gave up 40 points to Houston and 52 to USF last Game. Notre Dame has the tools to put points on the board.
The Irish would like to get Josh Adams or Tarean Folston going on the ground, but that hasn’t worked for most of the season. This Game will depend on what Kizer can do. He has the ability, he just has to put them together for a complete Game.
At the least for Navy, they’ve had a good enough offense to keep up with most teams. That’s how they beat Houston 46-40. Even without Keenan Reynolds, this is still the same offense and it continues to work. This season, Will Worth is in charge and is coming off a 299-yard passing Game, which usually doesn’t happen for Navy QBs. The triple option has worked for the most part this season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry as a team, and they should find room against this defense.
Navy ran for 318 yards in this meeting last year, so there’s no reason to believe they’ll be stopped this time. Notre Dame won that Game 41-24, but that was behind a good running Game. Without that Irish running Game, Navy has a decent shot to cover, unless you believe Kizer can cover this Game by himself.
The Midshipmen are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight Games overall, but 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Fighting Irish have not covered in five straight following an ATS Win.
Our Pick – Close Games the norm for the Irish as 6 of their 8 Games this season have been “close”. The Irish in desperation mode still needing to win 3 of their last 4 Games to qualify for a Bowl and those Games against Navy, Army, Virginia Tech and USC.
Feeling here is that the last Game of the year for the Irish against USC will be for a Bowl birth. If we’re right, that means this Game is a “W” for Notre Dame. But again, close Games the norm. Notre Dame +7