North Carolina
vs.
Florida State
ACC
College Football Pick
10/1/16
Things aren’t completely over for Florida State despite their huge loss to Louisville. That’s made possible because Louisville travels to Clemson this weekend. As long as the Seminoles keep winning as expected, including a home Game against Clemson, they could still be fighting for the ACC title by season’s end. Back at home this week against North Carolina, the ‘Noles opened as an -11 point favorite.
FSU didn’t get much respect last week, coming in as just a touchdown favorite at USF. And so, they proceeded to demolish the overmatched Bulls with a 38-point first half. As for North Carolina, they are fairly well known. The Tar Heels can Scorepoints in bunches, but struggle to do much defensively.
These teams haven’t played in over five years so nothing can be taken from previous meetings. What we know is that there will be a lot of points, as the over/under is sitting at 69..
With Florida State back home after two-straight road Games, it’s not out of the question for them to Score50-plus again. The Heels haven’t really stopped anyone on the defensive side and that includes allowed 36 points and 281 rushing yards to Pittsburgh last weekend.
With that being the case, Dalvin Cook has to be psyched for yet another big outing after rushing for 267 yards and two touchdowns last week to go with 62 more yards receiving. It wouldn’t be surprising if he hit those totals again. If so, freshman QB Deondre Francois may not have to do much again. He managed things well against USF, but only attempted 19 passes in the win.
The difference here is that UNC may be able to keep up on the scoreboard. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky has a flawless mark through Four Games with 13 touchdowns overall (10 passing) and zero interceptions. Of course, when he played a decent defense in the opener against Georgia, he wasn’t as good, completing 24-of-40 passes for just 156 yards and no touchdowns.
The ‘Noles have some injuries on defense, but they should still have enough talent to stymie the Heels offense. OUtside of Trubisky, UNC is still looking to find some help on the ground. They ran for just 18 yards (sacks included) in the one-point win over Pittsburgh. They had some success running the ball against Georgia, but their running Game has gone the opposite way in the last three Games, even against weaker opponents.
If the Heels can’t find room to run in this one, it’s going to be tough for Trubisky to keep it close by himself. He did so against Pitt, but this is a different animal in Tallahassee. It’s a foregone conclusion that Francois and Cook will Scoreat least 30 points with 40 being a real possibility and 50 not out of the question.
So for UNC to cover, Trubisky and company will be looking to Scoreat least 30 points on the road against a solid defense. Right now, that’s not a given. Florida State -11