Oklahoma
vs.
TCU
Big 12
College Football Pick
10/1/16
Oklahoma, sitting at the bottom of the Big 12 standings with the same record as Kansas, got a week off to evaluate what has gone wrong this season. With this being their opener in Conference play, the Sooners are looking to turn things around. The opening line for this Game was Pick em at betonline however bettors have been betting the Sooners with both hands, pushing this line to where it now sits at Oklahoma -3.5.
Despite the record and their struggles, Oklahoma is still getting respect in Vegas. They haven’t done all that much to ease bettor’s faith in the early going, getting outplayed by both Houston and Ohio State. And now in their first true road Game, they’re still favored.
Of course, a lot of that also has to do with TCU. The Horned Frogs have a better record and are still ranked, but nothing about their play has been all that comforting. They allowed 41 points to South Dakota State in the opener and then had to come back late before falling in overtime to Arkansas. Their three wins are all underwhelming to say the least.
That said, Oklahoma being a field goal-plus favorite on the road is somewhat interesting. In the meeting last year, it was far from a convincing win for the Sooners despite going up against backup quarterbacks Bram Kohlhausen and Foster Sawyer. Sure, Baker Mayfield suffered a concussion, but he still was just 9-of-20 passing the ball in the first half. The Sooners ran for 333 yards as a team and allowed 126 to Aaron Green in a 30-29 win.
With how sketchy the OU defense has looked at home, how will they perform on the road?
TCU QB Kenny Hill has been fine under center, but his six touchdowns and Four interceptions leave a lot to be desired, even if he has six more TDs on the ground. To win this Game, or even keep it close, he can’t turn the ball over.
Kyle Hicks will continue to be super involved in the offense as he already has 535 total yards on the year with 20 receptions. If they can get the ground Game going early, that would help in keeping Baker Mayfield off the field.
But if the Sooners get out to an early lead, it’ll fall to Hill to make things happen for the offense. The good news for Mayfield and company is that TCU hasn’t shown much defensively yet. The Sooners will likely want to get the rushing attack going as well, similar to last year with Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. It’s hard to read into their early stats considering the opponents, but Perine has just 149 yards and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
Mayfield hasn’t looked much better, but again, the Games against Houston and Ohio State can be pointed at for his struggles. Or also that he doesn’t have the same receivers to work with, especially Sterling Shepard.
The Horned Frogs kept tight in this Game on the road last year and now return home to face a struggling Sooners team. And as it stands, it looks like the TCU offense can move the ball just fine with Hill at quarterback, which makes taking Oklahoma on the road in this matchup a bit risky. But if you believe in Mayfield and that the Sooners aren’t as bad as they’ve played defensively, then go ahead and take the road team.
Our Pick – Bettors obviously feel the Sooners are in a good spot to bounce back after Ohio State took them to school. They’ve had a week off to prepare and are essentially in a must win situation. However, based on what we have seen from these two teams defensively, this Game figures to be a back and forth affair with plenty of points. In that type of a Game, the percentage play is the home dog plus the points. TCU +3.5