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Rams

vs.

Lions

Week 6

NFL Pick

10/16/16

When the Rams and Lions hook up on Sunday it will be a matchup of two teams that have played the opposite of each other. Los Angeles lost Weeks 1 and 5, but won each of the three weeks in between. Detroit, however, is 2-3 after winning in Weeks 1 and 5 and losing Weeks 2 through 4. The Lions are a 3-point favorite on their home field and the 5Dimes Sportsbook's over/under for this game is 43.5.

Moving the ball has been a real challenge for the Rams through the first five weeks. They've been about as stagnant as a team of professionals can be. Case Keenum is as pedestrian a quarterback as any team can have. Despite having a talented young running back in Todd Gurley, the running game has been awful. Kenny Britt has been pretty good at wide receiver, but he may be playing to his maximum ability considering he's never had an 800-yard season in his career.

Keenum is completing under 58 percent of his passes and is netting just over 200 passing yards per game. Additionally, He's thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) on the season.

Gurley has been held to an average of 2.7 yards per carry on the season. He went for a season-high 85 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 3, but that was on 27 attempts. Gurley has twice reached 3.1 yards per carry on the season -- his game-high to this point.

The Detroit defense is one of the worst in the NFL, but it's easy to question whether that will actually help out Los Angeles all that much. The Lions are surrendering almost 380 yards per game, and while they are bad against the pass and the run, their pass defense is definitely worse than the rush defense. My bet is that to help out the Rams' offense you aren't looking for a bad pass defense. Instead, you want as bad a rush defense to go against as possible for the hopes that Gurley have a big day.

The Lions have been awful in the run game, but Matthew Stafford can always go off, and he has one of the NFL's top targets. Julio Jones of the Atlanta Falcons grabs headlines all over the place, but it's actually Marvin Jones who leads the league in receiving yards with 519. Jones had over 400 yards in the first three weeks combined. He has only 111 yards in the last two weeks combined, so there is some concern that some teams may be figuring him out, but the Rams have not been that good defensively to imagine that they'll have the same success.

Our model gives the nod to the Lions by 5 at home. Detroit -3 -120

 

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