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Texas A&M

vs.

Mississippi State

By Jason Green

11/5/16

Well, the first BCS polls have come out and even getting crushed recently by Alabama, Texas A&M is ranked 4th even ahead of undefeated Washington. The Aggies got over their bad 33-14 loss to Bama by taking out their frustrations on New Mexico State, who they beat 52-10 in a non-conference match up.

While Texas A&M is gunning for a BCS playoff berth Mississippi State is just hoping to get in a bowl game. To do that they may have to win this game, as they need 3 more wins and after A&M they face Alabama in their next game, on the road no less, before finishing with Arkansas and Ole Miss. They are coming off a win, which snapped their 3 game skid, but it was against Samford, who put up 41 points on them.

The Aggies crushed New Mexico State in their last game 52-10, but still did not cover being favored by 43.5 points.

The Bulldogs beat Samford 56-41 in their last game where they also failed to cover being a 21-point favorite.

The Aggies are led by duel threat QB Trevor Knight, who has passed for 1.868 yards with 13 TD and 6 INT and is also the team's 2nd leading rusher with 529 yards with 9 TD, He is joined in the backfield by RB Trayveon Williams, who had a 217 yard game against Tennessee and then was stuffed against Alabama.

Mississippi State only ranks 105th in the nation defending the pass and 57th in defending the run. They beat Samford by 15 points in their last game, but they still gave up 627 total yards (468 passing yards 159 rushing yards).

With the issues that the Bulldogs have on the defensive side of the ball they may have to light up the scoreboard to win. However, they face an A&M defense that ranks 21st in the nation giving up an average of 19.8 ppg.

MSU QB Nick Fitzgerald lit up Samford to the tune of 417 passing yards with 5 TD, but he was also picked off twice. He has 5 INT in his last 3 games and if he turns the ball over in this one the Bulldogs will be in trouble. Fitzgerald also leads the team in rushing yards with no other player having over 221 yards on the ground. So it is pretty simple for the Aggies, as if they can contain Fitzgerald they will easily win.

The Aggies don't rank in the top 73 in the nation in pass defense or run defense. However, their only 2 games where they gave up more than 30 points was the big win over Tennessee and the loss to Alabama.

A&M is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and in their last 8 road games the posted total has gone Under every time.

MSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, and in their last 8 home games the posted total has gone Under 6 times.

Jason's Pick: The Aggies have failed to cover the spread in their last 4 games, but that is a trend that will end this Saturday. They will crush MSU, even in their house, and cover the spread moving to 8-1 on the season and keeping their BCS playoff hopes alive.

 

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