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Texas Tech

vs.

Kansas State

College Football Pick

10/8/16

By Jason Green

Texas Tech is at 3-1 and they have the nation's top passing offense and they rank 1st scoring an average of 59.5 ppg. However, their wins have come against the less than powerhouse teams of Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, and Kansas. In their only loss they gave up 68 points to Arizona State. Their high-octane offense will face off this Saturday against Kansas State, who ranks 7th in the nation only giving up 12.5 ppg.

Kansas State is coming off a tough 1-point loss in their last game and they rely on their D, as they do not have a dynamic offense. However, they may just have that in this game since Tech ranks 111th in the nation giving up 37.3 ppg.

Tech won their last game, which was their first in the Big 12, throttling Kansas 55-19 where they covered as a 27.5-point home favorite. Kansas State lost to West Virginia 17-16 in their last game covering on the road as a 1-point underdog.

The Tech passing offense has averaged 547.8 yards per game, but there is a little concern since starter Patrick Mahomes injured his shoulder in the Kansas win and if he cannot go Nic Shimonek will get the start. The backup came in and passed for 271 yards facing Kansas and it helps to have a stacked WR corps led by Jonathan Giles (565 yards 7 TD).

Mohomes is the 2nd leading rusher for the Red Raiders and if he cannot go Demarcus Felton will have to step up more. Still, KSU has to obviously key on the pass and they rank a legit 12th in the nation in pass defense.

KSU QB Jesse Ertz only has 584 passing yards this season with 4 TD and 2 INT, but he is the team's leading rusher. He and RB's Charles Jones and Dalvin Warmack can slow down the Tech passing attack if they can run the ball well and eat up the clock. They will be facing a Tech run defense that only ranks 75th in the nation. Ertz may also use his arm more since the weakness of the Red Raiders' D is their pass defense, which only ranks 118th in the nation.

Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Big 12 games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they have an Over record of 13-5 in their last 18 games.

Kansas State is 21-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss.

KSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games facing Texas Tech.

Jason's Pick: Tech has put up sick numbers, but they have not played a solid defense yet, which is what KSU has. The Wildcats will run the ball well and win and cover the 7.5-point spread in their house and gain a little revenge for last years result in the process.




 

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