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Texas Tech

vs.

TCU

College Football Pick

10/29/16

Like most Big 12 teams, this season hasn't gone to plan for either side in this game. Texas Tech comes into this game with a losing record in Patrick Mahomes's possible final season, while TCU already has two losses in conference play. But playing at home, the Horned Frogs opened as an -8.5 point favorite at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.

Texas Tech came into this season knowing they had a good offense, but they never thought the defense would be this bad. The Red Raiders continue to score points and set records, but their defense is allowing an incredible 43.9 points per game. Their game with Oklahoma resulted in 125 total points (66-59 loss) and this one could also break the 100-point barrier.

TCU was actually in a similar contest with the Sooners, losing that game 52-46 so it's a wonder why this line is so high. The Horned Frogs have a winning record, but none of their wins are good. Their two conference wins are against Iowa State and Kansas, and they only beat the Jayhawks by one point. To make matters worse, they were handled by West Virginia last weekend.

Unless Mahomes picks up an injury before this game, there's no reason the Red Raiders should be such big underdogs after covering against the Sooners last game. Mahomes is firing on all cylinders at the moment, throwing for an insane 734 yards and five touchdowns last week to go with 85 yards and two more touchdowns on the ground.

At this point, there's no reason to believe the Frogs can stop this offense. TCU already gave up 41 points to South Dakota State and Arkansas, as well as 52 to Oklahoma. Expecting them to hold down this Texas Tech offense would be a mistake.

Of course, the Horned Frogs will get their points as well which is why the line is so high. After Tech gave up 66 points to OU last weekend, it wouldn't be surprising if TCU reached the 50-point mark at home.

Sure, quarterback Kenny Hill hasn't been very good and he's a main reason this team has taken a step back, but everyone has scored against Texas Tech this year. That said, Hill has thrown an interception in all but one game this season and has only 13 TDs compared to nine interceptions. Obviously, that's not getting the job done, but he has thrown for 400-plus yards three times already and this could be another one of those outings.

TCU also has a running game with Kyle Hicks and they could easily take that route, similar to Oklahoma, to try and keep Mahomes off the field.

When these teams met last year, it was a shootout, unsurprisingly. The Horned Frogs won it 55-52 with a last-second touchdown. There's no reason to believe that same result can't happen again as neither of these defenses will be able to stop the opposing offense. Because of that, having this spread at more than a touchdown doesn't feel right.

The Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Big 12 games, but a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. However, that one cover was against Oklahoma last week. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following a straight-up loss.

Our Pick - Last years game was a 55-52 shootout win by TCU. See no reason this doesn't follow the same pattern. If you've been following our stuff for any length of time, you already know which we we're going to go in a set up like this. The back door is always open. Texas Tech +8.5

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