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Tennessee Titans

vs.

Kansas City Chiefs

Week 15

NFL Pick

By Jason Green

12/14/16

This is a big AFC match up for both of these teams, as they are each tied for first place in their respective divisions. The Titans are tied with the Houston Texans atop the AFC South and they have won 3 of their last 4 games. The defense for Tennessee has had issues this season ranking 20th in the league in opponents' points allowed, but that unit game up big last week in a 13-10 win over the Denver Broncos. RB DeMarco Murray has had a big season ranking 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game and the Titans rank 3rd in the league in rushing yards per game.

The Chiefs are coming off a big win over the Oakland Raiders and now they are tied with them atop the AFC West. They have the upper hand over Oakland, as they won both games facing them this season. Their D does not rank in the top 18 in the league in pass or run defense, but they are keeping teams from scoring big ranking 8th in opponents' points per game.

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between these teams.

In their last game the Titans were at home and beat the Denver Broncos were they covered the spread as a 2-point favorite.

The Chiefs were also at home in their last game beating the Oakland Raiders 21-13 covering as a 3.5-point favorite.

The Titans only had 253 total yards in the Denver game, while the Broncos had 348, but they ran the ball well, stuffed the run, and forced 2 turnovers. Murray went for 92 yards on the ground averaging 4.4 yards per carry. QB Marcus Mariota did not do much only completing 6 of 20 passed for 88 yards with no TD and no INT and he has not been thrown a single interception.

I mentioned the Chiefs' defense and they only rank 18th against the pass and 27th against the run, which has to be a concern with Murray coming to town. In their win over the Raiders the KC defense kept Derek Carr in check and held them to only 244 total yards.

QB Alex Smith was solid in the win over Oakland passing for 264 yards with a TD and an INT, but he did not get much help from the rushing offense. That area has struggled this season and in the Oakland game Spencer Ware led the team with 56 rushing yards, but only averaged 2.8 yards per carry.

Tennessee has one of the best run defenses in the league, ranking 3rd, but they rank 2nd to last in pass defense.

Tennessee is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and in their last 10 games the posted total has gone Over 8 times.

Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, and in their last 9 games the posted total has gone Under 7 times.

Jason's Pick: Kansas City is a very tough place to play and the Chiefs are 5-1 there this season. That will continue, as their D will get them the win in this game and they will cover the spread as well.

Note - The Bettorsworld model agrees with Jason

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