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Titans

vs.

Lions

Week 2

NFL Pick

9/18/16

The question on every Detroit Lions' fan's mind was 'how would the Lions fare without Megatron (Calvin Johnson)?' Well, I'm not going to argue that they are better off without him, but a victory over the Colts is nothing to sniff at. The Lions' offense mixed in the run and really spread the ball around in the passing game. They were able to move the ball at will, but that's not saying much considering the Colts' defense simply isn't good.

The Lions defense did surrender a lead with only 37 seconds to play which would typically result in a loss a hell of a lot more often than not, but the Lions' offense was able to make up for that lost lead by driving the ball down the field to set up a game winning field goal by Matt Prater.


The Titans jumped out to an early 10-0 lead over the Vikings. The game plan was simple; stuff the box with eight or nine guys and refuse to let Adrien Peterson beat their defense. Well, Shaun Hill was relatively effective throwing the ball which lead to a ton of field goals. The destroying factor for the Titans was offensive chemistry. Two of their three turnovers resulted in touchdowns for the Vikings.
Anytime you allow a defense to score two touchdowns, you're probably not going to win that game. Marcus Mariota was able to do some good things and the eye test shows that the Titans are not nearly as bad as they were last year. However, one would have liked to see more in the run game. If you pay a running back a lot of money to join your team, you then draft a Heisman-winning running back, and you have a Heisman-winning dual threat quarterback... run the damn ball.

Tennessee will be heading to Detroit for this game. Lines indicate that Detroit is a 6-point favorite which translates into the Lions having a 70.7% chance to win the game and the Titans having a 29.4% chance to win the game.

I plugged the data into my Elo model which includes various factors such as strength of team played and margin of victory/loss. My Elo model tells me that the Lions should be a 12-point favorite or have an 84% chance to win the game.

Prediction
- The Lions are a better team than the Titans at this stage.We see the Titans using their run game and relying on their defense to slow down the Lions' attack. Lions -6

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