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Tennessee

vs.

Texas A&M

SEC

College Football Pick

10/8/16

No matter the situation, Tennessee has found a way to win every game this season, the opposite of what happened in 2015. But can the luck continue for the Volunteers? They travel to Texas A&M this weekend before hosting Alabama. The Aggies opened as a -7 point favorite at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.

While the Vols have been in crazier games, the Aggies just keep winning and don't get the same headlines, despite an undefeated record, 3-0 in SEC play. They opened the season with a win over UCLA and have reeled off three SEC wins against Auburn, Arkansas and South Carolina. They've looked like one of the best teams in the country, something you can't say about Tennessee.

The Vols barely got by Appalachian State in the opener and most recently had to come back from two double-digit deficits against Florida and at Georgia. Most recently, they won on a Hail Mary to beat the Bulldogs. Whatever the case, they seem to play to the level of competition, on average at least.

With A&M being relatively new to the SEC still, these teams have actually only played twice in their history, back in 1957 and more recently in 2005. For our benefit, both will be top-10 teams going into this game.

The first thing to look at has to be the A&M offense. They aren't blowing teams out of the water, but Trevor Knight is getting just enough done passing the ball and Trayveon Williams has been a great boost to help. Knight's passing still leaves a lot to be desired, having not completed more than 58% of his passes in a game yet. But on the other end of that, Williams is averaging 9.0 yards per carry with him absolutely carving up the three SEC defenses with 34 carries for 378 yards and four touchdowns. That's slightly ridiculous. And then throw in Knight, who's plenty mobile at QB and averaging 7.8 ypc himself and you have a dynamic offense.

The Vols have been hit-or-miss defensively this season. They were awful at times against Florida, but then went on a run in the second half and looked dominant. Against Georgia, they couldn't really do much, but came up with big plays when needed against Jacob Eason. For the Vols to cover or win, they'll need to force Knight into similar turnovers.

On the other end, it's a similar situation as Tennessee continues to get off to slow starts to only bust loose in the second half. If they start slow again, this A&M defense won't be all that forgiving in a huge game at home. The status of stud defensive end Myles Garrett is of obvious concern because if he's out Joshua Dobbs will get more time in the pocket.

Either way, Dobbs will need to put in a full effort for the Vols to have a shot at an upset. He has six interceptions on the year, but on the other end of that has 13 touchdowns and then five more on the ground. Jalen Hurd is only averaging 4.0 yards per carry and that's worrisome and a main reason for some slow starts.

The Aggies have looked better in the first month, but the Volunteers probably have a higher upside. Because of that, there will be plenty of money on the road team.

The Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, but 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

check back for our pick

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