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West Virginia

vs.

Texas

College Football Pick

11/12/16

At one point, it looked like West Virginia was headed straight to the Big 12 title, cruising through the conference. That's quickly changed, and while the title is still a possibility for the Mountaineers, they are now underdogs against Texas. The Longhorns were seen as -2 point home favorites early in the week at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.

West Virginia was undefeated a couple weeks ago and looked unstoppable with back-to-back huge wins against Texas Tech and TCU. And then things fell apart for them against Oklahoma State. Despite outgaining the Cowboys, WVU faltered with three turnovers, which resulted in a 37-20 loss. And because of that loss, many people believe they were overrated going into that game.

Texas is rated right where they should be, as a mediocre team that has highs and lows. The Longhorns started out brutal, but have had success in the last two games, taking down a previously undefeated Baylor and then winning at Texas Tech last week. And considering the Longhorns haven't lost at home yet this season, they are being labeled as favorites in this game.

When these teams met last year, Texas actually outgained West Virginia but had too many costly turnovers, which put them in a hole early. Easier said than done, but the team that turns the ball over the most in this game will likely end up losing.

Starting with the Mountaineers, quarterback Skyler Howard was fairly safe with the ball before the loss at Oklahoma State. He still only has six interceptions on the year and doesn't have a pick in three of the last four games. Against a beatable Texas defense, his main goal will be to take care of the ball because it's likely the Mountaineers will find some room on the ground, whether it's Justin Crawford or Rushel Shell, as long as he returns from injury.

Texas still hasn't really stopped a good offense yet this season, and it's been the offense that has led the way. Running back D'Onta Foreman has been ridiculous all season as he's had at least 124 yards in every game he's played in. To go along with that, Foreman has 591 rushing yards and five touchdowns in the last two games. If you don't stop Foreman, you don't stop this offense even with an inconsistent Shane Buechele at quarterback.

West Virginia's defense has had its moments throughout the season, holding offenses like Texas Tech and TCU down, but the Texas offense has rarely been held in check. Outside of scoring just 21 points at Kansas State, the Longhorns produce at a solid rate behind Foreman. If Foreman picks up where he left off last game, then it'll be tough for WVU to win. But if that's not the case and the Mountaineers put up a fight, which is more than possible, the road team has enough offense to get the upset.

The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Longhorns have covered in four straight at home and are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Our Pick - West Virginia +2

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