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Alabama

vs.

Texas A&M

College Football

Free Pick

10/7/17

The question for the rest of the season is if Alabama will ever let up in one of these games. If not, the Crimson Tide could run through the SEC with huge blowouts the rest of the way, especially with how teams like Texas A&M and LSU have looked. The bookmakers went pretty high for this game, but it will likely move up still with the Tide as -26.5 point road favorites on Monday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

The last two weeks have been nothing short of incredible for Alabama, blowing through Vandy and Ole Miss by a combined 125-3 score line. It’s been complete domination for the Tide after taking it easy on teams like Fresno State and Colorado State. With another SEC team in its crosshairs, will the Tide go for another huge win?

This matchup was supposed to be good last year as the Aggies came in as the No. 6 team in the AP Polls, but it ended up being what everyone expected. ‘Bama ran through A&M en route to a 33-14 win and the Aggies proceeded to fall off after that game. A similar result isn’t out of the cards Saturday, even playing in College Station.

That’s because A&M hasn’t looked that great even with a 4-1 record. The Aggies let a huge lead slip away against UCLA and then barely got past Nicholls State. They have two seven-point wins in SEC play against two subpar teams in South Carolina and Arkansas. Covering this game will likely require the Aggies to score at least 10 points, something Ole Miss or Vandy couldn’t do.

Starting with that A&M offense, freshman Kellen Mond has been solid in four wins as starter, but he’s also only competing 54.8% of his passes and hasn’t seen a defense anywhere close to this Alabama one. He ran for a combined 204 yards against Arkansas and South Carolina, but that undoubtedly won’t happen in this game. After Trevor Knight scrambled for 24 yards in last year’s game, Mond probably won’t have much more success and if that’s the case, it’ll be trouble for the Aggies. A good portion of their offense has come from the ground game with Mond as well as top RBs Trayveon Williams (384 yards, 5 TDs) and Keith Ford (302 yards, 7 TDs). If those guys can’t find room, which is more than possible, there will be some issues for this offense.

This isn’t a big surprise, but Alabama has one of the best rush defenses in the country, limiting opponents to 2.8 yards per carry and it’s not like they’ve played bad offenses. On the other side, this is still an A&M defense that was gashed by UCLA and Arkansas, so there’s no reason to think they can stop Alabama.

Jalen Hurts continues to gash opponents on the ground on 8.4 yards per carry as he hasn't attempted more than 19 passes in a game. The RB trio of Damien Harris (8.4 ypc), Bo Scarbrough and Najee Harris will also be a problem to stop. The Aggies gave up 226 rushing yards to the Razorbacks only a couple weeks ago and Alabama could double that total.

But one of the reasons Alabama has covered the last couple games has been the play of backups with freshman quarterback Tua Tagovailoa looking about as good as Hurts when he’s come into the game. His play has added to the beat downs as the Tide scored touchdowns in Tagovailoa’s first four drives against the Rebels. At this point, there’s no reason to bet against Alabama no matter the number and no matter the location.

Lastly, hard to consider backing a team that has given up 43+ points 3 times this year when they are going up against a team that has scored 41, 41, 59 and 66 points it's last 4 games. Alabama -26


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