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Auburn

vs.

LSU

College Football

Free  Pick

10/14/17

There’s only one team that has looked like a possible contender to Alabama in the SEC West this season. Auburn already has a loss, but given how Clemson has performed, the Tigers can’t be faulted for that. With a 3-0 conference record, Auburn was an early -6 point favorite against LSU as seen at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Whereas Auburn has looked like one of the better teams in the SEC, LSU has been all over the place from getting blown out at Mississippi State and losing against Troy to taking down Florida last week. Beating the Gators doesn’t say much, but at least it’s a conference win for LSU as they could have trouble reaching six if they aren’t careful.

There’s a chance this game plays out the same as a year ago with Auburn winning 18-13 at home. It was a defensive battle with both teams finding room on the ground, but Auburn’s passing game worked slightly better and that led to six field goals. Now with a better offense and possibly better defense, Auburn will be aiming for an easier win.

Auburn has gotten decent QB play out of Jarrett Stidham and that’s all that’s needed when the ground game can run on anyone. Kerryon Johnson already has 504 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns and he’ll be the guy to open up this game. Stidham also provides an edge at quarterback, completing 71.2% of his passes and doing exactly what the team needs out of him.

After Florida had some success rushing the ball last week on LSU (5.1 yards per carry), that should lead to a similar outing for Auburn. LSU’s defense hasn’t been as good this year and isn’t a group that’s going to win games by itself. That’s why LSU already has a couple bad losses, as the offense is still an inept group.

LSU won last week, yet quarterback Danny Etling only threw for 125 yards and the top two running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams only averaged 2.9 yards per carry. The main reason the Tigers won and moved the ball on a couple touchdown drives was because of some long runs from Russell Gage and Derrick Dillon. Without those runs, LSU would’ve been forced to kick field goals instead of finding the end zone. And that’s going to be the problem here. Auburn’s offense is better in all facets and with the defenses almost on the same level, the road team has a clear edge in this game.

LSU has a chance to string together some wins, but doing so with Etling at quarterback will be tough. The Tigers are better off running behind Guice and Williams, but if you stack the box against them, there’s no reason to believe Etling can beat the defense. And so, LSU is stuck with an offense that has little upside.

The Auburn Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four SEC games and the LSU Tigers are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games. In this series, the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, while the under is 12-5 in the last 17.

Our Pick - Auburn -7

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