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Bears

vs.

Packers

Week 4

NFL Pick

9/28/17

By: Jason Green


Chicago Bears  (1-2 SU 2-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-1 SU 1-2 ATS)

The Bears got their first win of the season in their last game and they look to even their record facing a Packers team they lost to twice last season. After losing their first two games of the season Chicago pounded the run in their last game and it paid dividends. They will look to do that again against Green Bay this Thursday night facing their long-time rival in Green Bay, who gave up 110 rushing yards in their last game.

At 5 dimes sportsbook the Packers are 8.5-point favorites with a total of 45.5.

The Packers got off to a bad start at home in their last game, but Aaron Rodgers worked his magic to bring back his team to win over the Cincinnati Bengals in OT. Green Bay was down 21-7 at the half, but they came back and then set up the game-winning FG in OT with a free play where Rodgers hit a long bomb. It was a good thing Rodgers had a legit passing game, as the Packers only rushed for 64 yards.

The Packers have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games facing the Bears.

The Bears beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 23-17 in OT in their last game where RB Jordan Howard scored the game-winning TD on a 19-yard run in OT. Howard was the 2nd leading rusher in the NFL last season and after only rushing for 59 yards on 22 carries in the first two games Chicago leaned on him hard in the Pittsburgh game and he came through galloping for 138 yards with 2 TD and averaged a legit 6 yards per carry.

Bears QB Mike Glennon was 15 for 22 for 101 yards, but only averaged 4.6 yards per reception and with the lack of weapons he has on the outside Howard will be the key for Chicago in this game on the offensive side of the ball.

In their last game the Packers beat the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24 in OT. Rodgers had to do most of the work with the lack of a run game and if Ty Montgomery (35 rushing yards 2.9 yards per carry in the Bears game) can help him out it will make things much easier on the former MVP. Rodgers was 28 for 42 for 313 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT in the game and four players had at least 52 yards led by Geronimo Allison    , who had 122 receiving yards and caught the big free-play pass in OT.

The Packers won over Cincy even though their O-line gave up six sacks and they will face a Chicago pass rush that had three sacks in their win over the Steelers. The pass rush will be key for the Bears, as they have to get to Rodgers big time or they may be in for a long prime time game in Lambeau Field.

The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and in their last 6 games facing a team with a winning record the Under record is 5-1.

The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and in their last16 games the Over record is 13-3.

In four of the last five games between these teams in Green Bay the Under record is 4-1.

Jason’s Pick: The Packers were not impressive in the first half of their last game before the comeback. However, they are facing their rival Bears, who have a dink-and-dunk passing game and Howard in the backfield and that is about it on offense. Look for Green Bay to have a good game on D and for Rodgers to do his thing and get some help and the Packers will easily win and cover at home giving 7-points.

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