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Bills

vs.

Falcons

Week 4

NFL Pick

10/1/17

By: Jason Green


Buffalo Bills (2-1 SU 3-0 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-0 SU 2-1 ATS)

The Bills are coming off an impressive win beating the Denver Broncos 26-16 and that win was big after losing their previous game where they only scored three points. They are tied atop the AFC East with the New England Patriots, but are big betting underdogs heading south to take on the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.

At 5 dimes sportsbook the Falcons are 9.5-point favorites with a total of 48.5

Well, it looks as if the Falcons have forgotten about their Super Bowl collapse, as they are 3-0 and have only played teams from the NFC North. It looked as if they were going to take a loss in their last game only to have a last second TD taken away from the Detroit Lions, which gave Atlanta the win. Matt Ryan has been putting up solid yardage numbers, but in the win over the Lions in his last game he was picked off three times and will face a Buffalo pass defense that ranks 10th in the league.

These teams have not met since the 2013 season in Buffalo where the Falcons beat the Bills in OT.

The Falcons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against the Bills.

In their last game the Bills beat the Broncos 26-16 where the Buffalo D came up big late, as they had two INT and two 4th down stops in the Broncos last four possessions. The Bills were out-gained 366 yards to 272 yards and they did not run the ball well, but their D held late and got them the win. Tyrod Taylor was a solid 20 for 26 for 213 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT and he spread the wealth to his targets. He was sacked four times and the run game gave him little help, but he made the big plays when it mattered. Mike Tolbert was the lead rusher for 41 yards and LeSean McCoy only had 21 yards averaging 1.5 yards per carry and after rushing for 110 yards in the season opener he only has 30 rushing yards in the last two games.

The Falcons beat the Lions 30-26 in their last game where they have to thank the officials, who overturned a last second TD by Detroit. Atlanta racked up 428 yards and outgained the Lions by 104 yards, but the game was close because the birds turned the ball over three times and they did not force a turnover. Matt Ryan did pass for 294 yards with 2 TD, but he had 3 picks in the game and star WR Julio Jones was his main target with 91 receiving yards. Devonta Freeman     helped Ryan out big time rushing for 106 yards averaging a legit five yards per carry.

The key for Buffalo in this game is their defense, as if they can play good D they have a shot, but there is no way they can get into a shootout with Matt Ryan and come out on top on the road.

The Bills are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win, and in their last 15 games the Over record is 11-4.

The Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and in their last 26 games they have an Over record of 18-7-1.

Jason’s Pick: The Falcons dodged a bullet in their last game, but they will have an easier time in this one. Ryan will not turn the ball over multiple times and while the Bills have a good defense they will not keep Atlanta from moving the chains often. The Falcons will win this game and cover the spread and remain undefeated in the process.

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