Bills
vs.
Jets
Week 9
NFL Pick
11/2/17
By: Jason Green
Buffalo Bills (5-2 SU 5-1-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (3-5 SU 5-2-1 ATS)
The Bills have won two in a row and Four of their last five Games and have the same number of losses in the AFC East as the defending champion Patriots. They blew out the Raiders in their last Game and they have a defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL only allowing 16.4 ppg. This Game is big for Buffalo with a killer upcoming Schedule with Four Games facing the Saints, Chargers, Patriots, and Chiefs. Yeah, they could use a W in this division match up.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Bills are 3-point favorites with a total of 43.
After shocking the league and winning three in a row the Jets, who many thought would go 0-16 this season, have dropped three straight. While they have lost three in a row all have been close Games, but they are in the basement of the AFC East. New York does not rank in the top 20 in the league in passing or rushing yards per Game or ppg or opponents’ ppg.
This is the 2nd match up of the season between these two division rivals, as they faced off in the season opener in Buffalo where the Bills won 21-12.
While the Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Games facing the Jets the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.
While Buffalo is known for their D they have scored at least 30 points in their last two Games and in their last Game they beat the Raiders 34-14. The Bills only had 36 more total yards in the Game (367 yards to 331 yards), but they forced Four turnovers and did not have any. Tyron Taylor only passed for 165 yards, but was efficient going 20/27 and he had a TD and did not have a pick. The big gun on offense in the Game was RB LeSean McCoy, who rushed for 151 yards and a TD averaging 5.6 yards per carry. It was his first 100+ yard rushing Game since the season opener facing the Jets.
Look for McCoy to get a lot of carries facing a Jets team that only ranks 28th in the league in defending the run.
The Jets are coming off a 25-20 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons in their last Game where they only had 279 total yards and a grand total of 43 rushing yards. Josh McCown was 26/33 in the Game for 257 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT, which is impressive with the lack of talent the Jets have on the outside. Still, Robby Anderson had 104 receiving yards and a TD and five New York players had at least 20 receiving yards. Bilal Powell led the Jets with 33 yards on the ground averaging a weak 2.4 yards per carry and New York has to run the ball better. However, that is far from easy facing a Buffalo run defense that ranks 2nd in the league.
The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games following a straight up win, and in their last 4 road Games the Under record is 4-0.
The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home Games, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Games overall, and they have an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
Jason’s Pick: The Bills are only 1-2 on the road this season and the Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last five Games at home, but still going with Buffalo. They will control this Game on the ground and their D will play well. Look for a low scoring affair this Thursday night, which the Bills win and cover moving to 6-2 on the season.