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Chargers

vs.

Jaguars

Week 10

NFL Pick

11/12/17

By: Jason Green


L.A. Chargers (3-5 SU 3-4-1 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3 SU 5-3 ATS)

The Chargers had their three-game win streak snapped in their last game, but they only lost by eight points on the road facing the New England Patriots. While QB Phillip Rivers has not put up big numbers and the run game has struggled to move the chains the defense has been solid and that unit ranks tied for 7th in the NFL in points allowed per game.

At 5 dimes sportsbook this game has the Jaguars as the 4-point favorite with a total of 41.

This is not a typo, as the Jaguars are legit and they are 5-3 at the halfway point of the season. They have won three of their last four games, including their last two, and they are tied with the Tennessee Titans atop the AFC South. While they have not been lighting it up in the air they rank 1st in the league in rushing yards per game, 1st in only allowing an average of 14.6 ppg, and their offense ranks a very respectable tied for 8th in overall ppg. Laughing stock of the league no longer, as Jacksonville is an up and coming team that is young and hungry and playing with confidence.

The Jags are the 4-point betting favorite, but they have failed to cover the spread in their last six games facing the Chargers.

In their last game the Chargers lost to the Patriots 21-13 where L.A. had the game’s only turnover and they were only 3/10 on 3rd down. They gave up 27 first downs in the game and allowed Tom Brady to light them up in the air. Phillip Rivers passed for 212 yards with a TD and an INT and Travis Benjamin and Keenan Allen each had at least 61 receiving yards. Melvin Gordon rushed for 132 yards with 87 of them coming on a long TD run. While Rivers is the big gun on the LA offense the squad may want to ride Gordon in this game, as while the Jags’ D is a good one they are the only team in the NFL that is allowing opposing RB’s to average over five yards per carry.

The Jaguars beat the Cincinnati Bengals 23-7 in their last game where they dominated Cincy with 408 total yards while they only gave up 148 yards. They stuffed the run and only allowed 119 passing yards. Blake Bortles passed for 259 yards with a TD and an INT and Marqise Lee, who leads the team in receiving yards on the season, had 75 yards through the air and hauled in the TD catch. Chris Ivory rushed for 70 yards and T.Y. Yeldon added 41, but neither averaged over 3.7 yards per carry.

Jacksonville super rookie RB Leonard Fournette leads the Jags with 596 rushing yards and has missed the last two games, but he is expected to go in this AFC contest. Not good at all for L.A., as they rank 2nd to last in the league giving up an average of 135.1 rushing yards per game.

The Chargers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, and in their last 7 road games the Under record is 5-2.

The Jaguars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games facing teams from the AFC, and in their last 6 home games the Over record is 5-1.

Jason’s Pick:
The Chargers put up a valiant effort in their last game facing the Pats, but they will not do so this week. The Jags will run them ragged on the ground and their D will keep Rivers and company in check. Jacksonville will win and cover at home and with their 3rd in a row.

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