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Kansas City Chiefs

vs.

San Diego Chargers

Week 17

NFL Pick

1/1/17

By Jason Green


The Chiefs are in the playoffs and if they win this game and the Raiders lose to the Broncos they will get a first round bye as the 2nd seed in the AFC as the AFC West champion. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and they are led by a defense that ranks 5th in the league in opp. That defense came up big in their last game where they beat the Denver Broncos 33-10.

The Chargers are looking forward to the end of the season and they have not only lost 4 games in a row their last loss was to a Browns' team that was winless. Phillip Rivers has been pretty solid under center with the 5th most passing yards in the league, but he has not gotten much help from the rushing offense and the San Diego D only ranks 28th in opponents' ppg. In the season opener this season the Chiefs were at home and beat the Chargers 33-27.

The Chiefs have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games facing the Chargers.

In their 33-10 win over the Broncos in their last game the Chiefs easily covered the spread as a 3.5-point home favorite.

In their last game the Chargers lost to the Cleveland Browns 20-17 where they failed to cover as a 4.5-point road favorite.

In the win over Denver Alex Smith passed for 244 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT and overall KC rushed for 248 yards in the game. San Diego has been up and down on defense this season and while they have been decent against the run ranking 10th in the league they only rank 19th against the pass.

Rivers passed for 322 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the loss for the Browns and he had to do it all since San Diego only had a grand total of 34 yards. He will be facing a KC D that held Denver in check. While the Chiefs only rank 26th against the run and 17th against the pass they have been solid all season in keeping teams out of the end zone.

Rivers had a big game in the loss to the Chiefs early this season, but like the Browns game did not get much help from the run game. Melvin Gordon may be back for this game, but if he cannot go because of his knee injury Ronnie Hillman will have to lead the ground game.

Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and in their last 11 games overall the posted total has gone Under 8 times.

San Diego is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games, and in their last 15 games facing a team that has a winning record they have an Under record of 10-4-1. 

Bettorsworld Pick - Another tricky spot with a team needing a win to potentially clinch the division against a rival with nothing to lose. But the Chiefs are a legitimate threat to go deep into the playoffs and that should start here with a season ending win and cover over the Chargers. Chiefs -.5.5
 

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