Kansas City Chiefs
vs.
New England Patriots
NFL Pick
9/7/17
By Jason Green
The NFL season kicks off in a primetime Thursday night Game where the defending Super Bowl champions host the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs won 12 Games last season, but were bouNCed in their first playoff Game. While KC is a pretty big road underdog (+8.5 at 5 dimes), they have won their last six regular season Games on the road.
The Patriots are coming off their spectacular comeback in last season’s Super Bowl and they are not only the betting favorites to win this Game, but to win the Super Bowl as well. Tom Brady is back for another go and while the team made some solid moves this off-season they suffered a big loss with leading WR and Super Bowl star Julian Edelman lost for the season with a knee injury. Still, the Pats always deal with adversity and they picked up some legit talent. On top of that in speaking of this Game since the 2014 season they have only lost Four regular season Games in their house.
Alex Smith is still the QB for Kansas City and while he is a great Game manager he is not a Game changer. He does not have the best WR corps and the team lost RB’s SpeNCer Ware and Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt, Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller will be manning the running duties. KC needs to run the ball, as Smith cannot carry the team solely with his arm.
The Kansas City D only ranked 24th in the league last season (18th against the pass and 26th against the run), but they have a solid secondary duo in Marcus Peters and Eric Berry and LB Justin Houston and Chris Jones up front. Can these two get to Brady and can the secondary keep him from making big plays in this Game? big question.
The loss of Edelman is a big one, but the Pats brought in WR Brandin Cooks and they still have a good WR corps. The team also got RB Mike Gillislee from Buffalo and with Rob Gronkowski also in the mix, New England hopes he can stay on the field, their offense is still one of the best in the business. On top of that their D ranked 8th in the NFL last season and they were especially strong against the run. Any way you look at it the Patriots are loaded and in primetime this Thursday night the Chiefs have their work cut out for them.
Key Betting Trends
The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road Games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games overall, and they have an Under record of 9-4 in their last 13 Games.
The Patriots are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home Games, 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 Games overall, and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 Games.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games against the Chiefs.
Jason’s Pick: Ok, so KC has covered in their last 6 road Games. Look for that trend to end in this season opener. Brady will pick up right where he left off last season and while I do not foresee a blowout New England will win pretty easily and cover the spread giving 8.5 points.
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