Atlanta Falcons
vs.
New England Patriots
Week 7
NFL Pick
10/22/17
By: Jason Green
Atlanta Falcons (3-2 SU 2-3 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (4-2 SU 2-4 ATS)
After winning their first three Games the Falcons have lost their last two where their dynamic offense has only scored 17 points in each Game. How will the come back facing the Patriots, who had the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history last season when it looked like Atlanta had the Game in hand. Across the board the Falcons have been pretty solid on the season, but they are only one Game over .500 and, not surprisingly, a 3.5-underdog in this Game.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Patriots are 3.5-point favorites with a total of 56.5.
The Patriots have won two in a row, but both Games were close and they got a little lucky in their last Game having a New York Jets late TD overturned and called a turnover. Tom Brady leads the NFL in passing yards and the offense has been legit, but the Pats rank 30th in the league in points allowed and dead last in yards allowed per Game.
While the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in their last five Games facing the Pats the road team has covered in five of the last six Games between these teams.
In their last Game the Falcons lost to the Miami Dolphins 20-17 where they allowed Miami to rally from a 17-point deficit to get the W. Atlanta had 50 more overall yards in the Game (339 to 289), but they struggled to stop the run and they were outscored 20-0 in the 2nd half. Reigning MVP Matt Ryan passed for 248 yards with a TD and an INT and Julio Jones led the team with 72 passing yards. Ryan has been pretty good on the season, but he only had six passing TD in five Games and also has six picks. The Falcons rushed for 100 yards on the Game, but 64 of them came on two carries and they have to run the ball better in this Game. They will face a New England run D that played well last week holding the Jets to 74 yards on the ground.
The Patriots beat the Jets 24-17 in their last Game where they forced three turnovers, but were out-GAined and GAve up 408 total yards. The Pats’ D did step up in the 2nd half where they held New York to only three points. Brady went for 257 passing yards with a couple of TD and an INT and Brandin Cooks led the team with 93 receiving yards and Rob Gronkowski had 83 receiving yards and 2 TD. The Patriots rushed for 118 yards with Dion Lewis and Mike Gillislee combining for 96 rushing yards.
Atlanta ranks a solid 6th in the league in pass defense, but will they play up to that ranking or like they did last season in the 2nd half of the Super Bowl when Brady torched them? Big question.
The Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road Games, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Games following a straight up loss, and in their last 9 Games facing a team with a winning record they have an Over record of 8-1.
The Patriots are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 Games overall, -12-2 ATS in their last 40 home Games, and in their last 10 Games the Over record is 8-2.
Jason’s Pick: In an interesting trend the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in their last Four Games in the month of October. Too bad for them that trend will continue and they will not find any redemption after last season’s Super Bowl collapse by beating the Pats. New England will get a big Game from Brady and while this Game will not be a barnburner like the Super Bowl last season the result will be the same, as the Pats will win and cover the spread.