Florida State
vs.
UL Monroe
College Football
Free Pick
12/2/17
Florida State decided to make up this Game sitting with five wins and needing another to guarantee a bowl appearance. At the original time of this Game back in late September, the Seminoles were a -32 point favorite against Louisiana Monroe. Surprisingly, the spread isn’t much different three months later, but most of that has to do with how the Warhawks have looked. The Seminoles were -27 point favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
There remains a question surrounding Jimbo Fisher, but that shouldn’t be a factor for this matchup even with how bad FSU has been. ULM has lost five of its last six Games with one of those being a 42-14 loss at Auburn. Most recently, the Warhawks lost 67-50 against Arkansas State. Needless to say, their defense isn’t good, allowing more than 40 points and 535 yards per Game.
That’s the main reason Florida State is favored by so much even with subpar play for most of the season. The offense has turned it around in recent Games and most recently dropped 38 points at Florida. James Blackman has had issues most of the season, but he isn’t being asked to do much in any close Game. He attempted just 21 passes in the win at Florida last week. The ‘Noles will focus on running the ball as much as possible between Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick and that may be all they need against a defense giving up 220 rushing yards per contest. Even with how bad FSU has been this season, it should be close to reaching 40 points against this defense.
Covering this Game will depend on how motivated the defense is because the Warhawks have a few pieces that can put points on the board. In fact, the loss to Auburn was the only one they’ve had by more than 17 points and that 17-point loss came last week against Arkansas State. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Evans has been fine this season, but stepping up in competition hasn’t faired well for him after completing just 9-of-25 passes against Auburn. And if Evans can’t find room on the ground against this Florida State front, it’ll be hard to top 20 points, if not 10. Evans and Derrick Gore have run on weaker Sun Belt teams, but this FSU front isn’t weaker. The only question is how motivated the Seminoles will be to run up the Scorein their final regular season Game. After beating their rival last week, it’ll be hard to get up for this one.
The Warhawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road Games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 non-Conference Games. The Seminoles have covered in their last five against a team with a losing record, but are 1-5 ATS in their last six home Games.
Our Pick – UL Monroe +27