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Georgia

vs.

Auburn

College Football

Free Pick

11/11/17

Is Georgia for real? This one could go a long way in determining that with the Bulldogs putting their undefeated record on the line against Auburn, who looks set to finish second in the SEC East. For the afternoon game, the Bulldogs were -2.5 point road favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

It was only a year ago that Auburn had the same 7-2 record and ranked in the top 10 when Georgia won a defensive slugfest 13-7. The Bulldogs have won the last three in this meeting and their defense dominated the last meeting as the Tigers got just 37 passing yards from their mess of quarterbacks. There are plenty of reasons why this could be a similar game, although Auburn’s defense has slipped up in the last month. While the Tigers are still winning (outside of the LSU game), their defense has given up at least 20 points in the last four games, while Georgia only gave up 20 points once all season and that was against Missouri in a big win.

Georgia already has an impressive win at Notre Dame and that could be reason enough to back them here. The path for Auburn to cover would be by stopping Nick Chubb and Sony Michel on the ground, but that’s a big ask. The Bulldogs are averaging 5.8 yards per carry as a team, while freshman quarterback Jake Fromm is there to simply not make a mistake. He’s attempted more than 20 passes just three times all season and will only have to do that if Auburn’s run defense steps up. The Tigers are allowing 126 rushing yards per game, which is good, but haven’t faced a rushing attack like Georgia’s yet. Auburn also gave up 27 points to LSU, which run the same basic run-first offense, but at a much lesser level.

The other side of the ball will be a test between a great running team and great defense. Auburn is averaging more than 220 rushing yards per game, but the biggest thing might be that this team has a combined 29 points against the two best defenses it’s seen in Clemson and LSU. Throw Georgia into the mix and the Tigers may not be able to reach 20 points in this game. Jarrett Stidham has given Auburn more consistency at quarterback, but he’s another game manager that isn’t asked to do much. The Tigers have given running back Kerryon Johnson at least 28 carries in three of the last four games and they’ll try and do that again if possible. If not, that only means that Georgia’s defense is limiting Johnson from doing more.

Even though Auburn is at home, it’ll be hard to bet against Georgia with a spread less than a field goal. The Bulldogs defense has been one of the best in the country and betting against them won’t be easy.

The Bulldogs have covered in their last seven road games and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall. The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven SEC games and 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine home games. Georgia is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools, but the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.

Our Pick - Georgia -2.5

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