Jacksonville Jaguars
vs.
Indianapolis Colts
Week 7
NFL Pick
10/22/17
By: Jason Green
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3 SU 3-3 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-4 SU 3-3 ATS)
Am I seeing this right, the Jaguars are a betting favorite on the road? The Jaguars have lost two of their last three Games, but they are still at .500 tied atop the AFC South with the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans. They are a balanced team that ranks a legit 8th in the league in ppg and 7th in points allowed and one of the main reasons for their success is the play of rookie RB Leonard Fournette, who ranks 2nd in the league in rushing yards.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Jaguars are 3-point favorites with a total of 43.5.
The Colts are coming off a Monday night loss to the Titans, but even at 2-4 they are in the AFC South race with every other team in the division at 3-3. Andrew LUck is still out and will not play in this Game and they need to rely on their offense, as their defense ranks dead last in points allowed.
Jacksonville has covered the spread in their last Four Games against Indianapolis and they have covered in seven of their last 10 Games facing them on the road.
In their last Game the Jags lost to the L.A. Rams 27-17 and one of main reasons they lost is that they GAve up two special teams TD. In the Game they out-GAined the Rams by 140 yards and they only scored three points in the last three quarters after a solid start to the Game where they scored 14 points. Blake Bortles passed for 241 yards with a TD and an INT and Marqise Lee led the club with 83 receiving yards. Fournette was impressive yet again with 130 rushing yards and a Scoreand he averaged a very solid 6.2 yards per carry.
Look for Fournette to get a heavy workload in this Game and the Indy run D only ranks 21st in the NFL in run defense and in their loss on Monday night they GAve up 168 yards on the ground.
The Colts had beat the Tennessee Titans in 11 straight Games before losing to them 36-22 on Monday night. Their D did not play the run well and overall they GAve up 473 yards while they only totaled 297 yards. Jacoby Brissett will get the start in this Game and he had 212 passing yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, but he did not get a lot of help from the run Game. Frank Gore rushed for 49 yards averaging a legit 4.9 yards per carry, but the Colts went to the air to try to come back. Gore will be key in this Game, as Jax ranks 2nd to last in the league in defending the run.
Jacksonville is 2-1 on the road this season and Indianapolis is 2-1 at home.
The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road Games, 3-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and in their last 5 Games the Over record is 4-1.
The Colts are 31-15-1 ATS in their last 47 home Games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Games following a ATS loss, and in their last 4 Games they have an Over record of 4-0.
Jason’s Pick: In one betting trend between these teams the favorite has covered the spread in nine of the last 14 Games between these AFC South rivals. That trend will continue this Sundy in Indy, as Fournette will have a big Game on the ground, the Jags’ D will keep the Colts down, and Jax will win and cover the spread moving over .500 on the season.