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Kansas State

vs.

Oklahoma State

College Football

Free Pick

11/18/17

Once again, the season didn’t play out as hoped for Oklahoma State, mainly due to a defunct defense. The Cowboys still have a shot to make the Big 12 title game, but that’s unlikely at this point. At the least, they finish the season with a couple easier games. Or at least that’s the thought. The Pokes were -21 point favorites against Kansas State as of Monday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

It took some time for this spread to come out mainly because of Kansas State’s quarterback situation. The Wildcats started their third QB of the season in Skylar Thompson last week in the loss to West Virginia and he appears likely to start another. At this point, there’s been little difference between any of the K State quarterbacks with Jesse Ertz and Alex Delton also on that list. They are all plenty mobile, but also struggle to complete passes with none of them having above a 56 percent completion rate.

To win or cover this game, KSU will need to score points on a defense that’s giving up close to 30 points and 414 yards per game. Taking OK State as a three-touchdown favorite is a bit of a stretch considering its only conference win by more than 11 points this year came against Baylor. Trusting the Cowboys to shut down K State completely will be tough. KSU’s worst loss was against TCU and that was a bit fluky in a game that had multiple delays. Kansas State has been able to keep tight with every high-scoring team this season from Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia. Bill Snyder’s offense usually find a way to score and that should be the case again, even with Thompson at quarterback and whomever gets the call at running back.

The reason to take OK State is on the other side of the field mainly because this KSU defense has struggled all season, giving up 430 yards per game, which includes 303 yards in the air. That’s not a recipe for success against Mason Rudolph and company.

The Pokes have been rolling, scoring at least 49 points in their last three games with an all-around attack that not even Iowa State could stop last week. Justice Hill is putting in a nice season at running back with 1,198 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. Rudolph has done everything else, although interceptions cost him in the team’s only two losses. Still, Rudolph has career-best numbers across the board from 30 passing touchdowns to 10.22 yards per attempt. James Washington is one of the best receivers in the nation, but Marcell Ateman and Jalen McCleskey are great as second and third options.

OK State will probably score at least 40 points in this game and that’s good enough reason to back them. Then again, the Pokes will have trouble holding down K State to less than 30 points. In last year’s game, K State had a late lead before OK State needed two fourth-quarter touchdowns to win 43-37.

The Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss, while the Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following an ATS loss. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these schools and Kansas State has covered the last four meetings in Stillwater.

Our Pick - Kansas St +19.5

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