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Kentucky

vs.

Georgia

College Football

Free Pick

11/18/17

Things played out for Georgia like most people thought it would in that nothing matters expect for beating Alabama. Georgia’s season will likely come down to the SEC title game against the Crimson Tide. If the Bulldogs can’t win that one, they don’t deserve to be in the College Football Playoff. But before then, Georgia has a couple games that are harder than they appear on the surface. Still, the Bulldogs were -21.5 point home favorites against Kentucky as of Monday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Bettors are still going big on Georgia even after last week’s somewhat embarrassing 40-17 loss in which they were run over by Auburn. Kentucky comes in at 7-3, but its best win is either South Carolina or Vandy, which isn’t saying much. In their most difficult game of the season, the Wildcats fell 45-7 to Mississippi State. UK put up a fight and almost won this game last year, but ended up losing 27-24 and these teams are a bit different than in 2016, namely Georgia.

Despite last week’s loss, the Bulldogs are still a team that ran through the rest of their SEC schedule. A 42-7 win against Florida stands out as does the 31-3 win over Miss. State. If they come to play, this one can be similarly ugly. Georgia still has one of the best defenses in the country allowing only 14.5 points per game and while Kentucky’s offense is cruising, all of that has come against weaker opponents.

To cover, the Cats need a balanced offense that doesn’t turn the ball over. Running back Benny Snell has been on fire in the last three games with over 400 yards and nine touchdowns, but Georgia gives up just 100 rushing yards per game. If Snell can’t find room, this offense will have an issue, similar to the Miss. State loss. Stephen Johnson is simply there to manage the game at quarterback and that’s seen in his 10 passing touchdowns and four interceptions. If Kentucky can’t run, it’ll be tough for them to reach 20 or maybe even 10 points.

On the other side, the Bulldogs should have their way, but it’s important to note Kentucky’s rush defense is better than against the pass. While that may not matter against Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, it’s still a path to stay competitive in this game, especially with a spread near three touchdowns. If those two are stopped at all, Jake Fromm will be asked to throw, which didn’t turn out well last game. And while he has 16 touchdowns, Fromm hasn’t really been asked to pass much in a run-first offense.

There’s an obvious path for how Georgia can dominate this game, but if Georgia finds any resistance in the ground game and Kentucky can getting something out of Snell, this one could be somewhat competitive.

The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, but 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. The Bulldogs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. The favorite has covered in the last four meetings between these schools, which means Georgia has covered in the last four.

Our Pick - Kentucky +21.5

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