Lions
vs.
Packers
Week 9
NFL Pick
11/6/17
By: Jason Green
Detroit Lions (3-4 SU 3-4 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-3 SU 3-4 ATS)
After a promising start the Lions have dropped three in a row and with their last loss they fell under .500 for the season. Unheard of for them to the favorite on the road facing Green Bay, but the one thing they have going for them is they face the slumping Packers without their leader Aaron Rodgers. While Matthew Stafford leads a pretty good offense they only scored 15 points in their last Game and they only rank 28th in the league in rushing yards per Game and 25th in points against per Game.
At 5 dimes sportsbook this Game has the Lions a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5.
The Packers have now lost two in a row with Rodgers injured and they could use a home win since they are at 4-3 with the NFC North leaders Minnesota Vikings at 6-2. With Rodgers out of the lineup Green Bay has only totaled 27 points in their last two Games and their D, which has given up 49 points in their last two Games, only ranks tied for 20th in the league in opponents’ ppg.
The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Games against the Lions overall and are 5-1 ATS in their last six Games facing them at home.
After giving up 52 points in a loss the Lions GAve up 20 points in their last Game, but still took the loss falling to the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-15. They out-GAined the Steelers 482 yards to 392 yards and they had fewer turnovers (2-1), but they only rushed fir 71 yards and were 2/12 on 3rd down conversions. Matthew Stafford passed for a whopping 423 yards and while he did not have an INT he also did not pass for a TD. The Jones’ in Marvin Jones Jr and T.J. Jones combined for 216 receiving yards and Golden Tate had 86 yards through the air. Detroit only rushed for 71 yards and Ameer Abdullah was the lead rusher for 27 yards averaging a weak 2.5 yards per carry.
Green Bay is stronger defending the pass than the run, which is not a good match up Detroit since their run Game has struggled to help out Stafford this season.
The Packers lost to the New Orleans Saints 26-17 in their last Game and they were out-GAined 485 yards to 260 yards. Brett Hundley was only 12/25 for 87 yards with no TD and an INT and this season since taking over for Rodgers he had 4 picks and only 1 TD. Aaron Jones did rush for 131 yards with a TD in the loss to the Saints and look for the Packers to lean on the run Game to take pressure off Hundley. Still, the Lions are legit on the season in run defense, ranking 4th in the league and holding Pittsburgh to 76 rushing yards in their last Game, but while their pass D is their weakness will Hundley take advantage of it?
The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games overall, 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 30 road Games the Under record is 22-8.
The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home Games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Games following a straight up loss, and in their last 14 Games the Over record is 11-3.
Jason’s Pick: While the Packers have lost two in a row they still have faith in Hundley and I think he will come through in this Game. The Lions cannot run the ball and while Stafford may have a big Game it will be like their last one facing the Steelers, as they will not get the W. Green Bay will win and cover at home putting pressure on the Vikings in the NFC North and really putting the Lions behind the 8-ball in their playoff chances.